Japan's long-term climate mitigation policy: Multi-model assessment and sectoral challenges
Japan's long-term climate mitigation policy: Multi-model assessment and sectoral challenges
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DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2018.10.091
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发表时间：
2019-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
M. Sugiyama;S. Fujimori;S. Fujimori;K. Wada;Seiya Endo;Y. Fujii;Ryoichi Komiyama;Etsushi Kato;A. Kurosawa;Yuhji Matsuo;K. Oshiro;F. Sano;Hiroto Shiraki
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文献类型：
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作者：
M. Sugiyama;S. Fujimori;S. Fujimori;K. Wada;Seiya Endo;Y. Fujii;Ryoichi Komiyama;Etsushi Kato;A. Kurosawa;Yuhji Matsuo;K. Oshiro;F. Sano;Hiroto Shiraki
日本是2016年全球第六大温室气体排放国，在实现《巴黎协定》的长期气候目标方面发挥着重要作用。日本能源和环境政策领域的关键政策问题之一是能源系统转型，以实现2050年减排80%的目标，这是2016年制定的当前政策目标。为了促进正在进行的政策辩论，本文将重点放在与能源相关的二氧化碳排放上，并分析了与政府目标一致的脱碳情景。我们采用了六种能源经济和综合评估模型来揭示能源系统中的脱碳挑战。模拟结果表明，日本的缓解情景具有高边际减排成本的特点。他们还表明，在减排80%的情景下，工业部门可能会有很大的最终能源份额和大量的剩余排放，尽管人们普遍认为运输部门将面临巨大的脱碳挑战。目前的研究结果表明，不仅能源政策，而且产业政策可能与长期环境目标有关。鉴于高边际成本超过了负排放技术的成本上限，因此进一步开发模型至关重要。
Japan is the sixth largest greenhouse gas emitter in 2016 and plays an important role to attain the long-term climate goals of the Paris Agreement. One of the key policy issues in Japan's energy and environmental policy arena is the energy system transition to achieve 80% emissions reduction in 2050, a current policy goal set in 2016. To contribute to the ongoing policy debate, this paper focuses on energy-related CO2emissions and analyzes such decarbonization scenarios that are consistent with the government goals. We employ six energy-economic and integrated assessment models to reveal decarbonization challenges in the energy system. The modeling results show that Japan's mitigation scenarios are characterized by high marginal costs of abatement. They also suggest that the industrial sector is likely to have a large final energy share and significant residual emissions under the 80% reduction scenario, though it is generally thought that the transport sector would have large decarbonization challenges. The present findings imply that not only energy policy but also industrial policy may be relevant to the long-term environmental target. Given the high marginal costs exceeding those of negative emissions technologies that could place a cost ceiling, further model development would be crucial.