Generating small-area prevalence of psychological distress and alcohol consumption: validation of a spatial microsimulation method
Generating small-area prevalence of psychological distress and alcohol consumption: validation of a spatial microsimulation method
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DOI：
10.1007/s00127-011-0376-6
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发表时间：
2012-05-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Smith, Dianna M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Riva, Mylene;Smith, Dianna M.
公共心理健康监测数据很少在一个良好的地理范围内提供。本研究应用空间微观模拟程序，以产生小面积（下超输出区[LSOA]）的心理困扰和酒精消费的估计。LSOA估计的有效性及其与近端和更广泛的社会经济条件的关联进行了检查。确定性重新加权方法通过将来自大型人口代表性数据集（英格兰健康调查）的个体与已知的LSOA人群（来自2001年人口普查）进行匹配的过程，分配心理困扰和重度饮酒的患病率估计。LSOA估计值的“拟合优度”是通过将其与在较高聚集水平（地方当局辖区[LAD]）观察到的这些健康指标的患病率进行比较来评估的。人口患病率估计与心理健康需求指数（MINI）和其他健康指标;有序逻辑回归被应用于调查他们的协会与近端和更广泛的社会经济conditions.Performance的微观模拟模型是高的，不超过10%的误差在至少90%的左前降支的心理困扰和中度和重度饮酒。MINI与心理困扰（r = 0.910; p值< 0.001）密切相关，与重度饮酒（r = 0.389; p值< 0.001）中度相关。心理困扰和大量饮酒与LSOA水平的社会经济和农村指标有不同的相关性。在LAD水平上，相关性进一步变化，区域差异也很明显。空间微观模拟可能是在地方一级复制社会和人口健康模式的适当方法。
Public mental health surveillance data are rarely available at a fine geographic scale. This study applies a spatial microsimulation procedure to generate small-area (Lower Super Outputs Areas [LSOA]) estimates of psychological distress and alcohol consumption. The validity of LSOA estimates and their associations with proximal and broader socioeconomic conditions are examined.A deterministic reweighting methodology assigns prevalence estimates for psychological distress and heavy alcohol consumption through a process of matching individuals from a large, population-representative dataset (Health Survey for England) to known LSOA populations (from the 2001 population Census). 'Goodness-of-fit' of LSOA estimates is assessed by their comparison to observed prevalence of these health indicators at higher levels of aggregation (Local Authority Districts [LAD]). Population prevalence estimates are correlated to the Mental Health Needs Index (MINI) and other health indicators; ordered logistic regression is applied to investigate their associations with proximal and broader socioeconomic conditions.Performance of microsimulation models is high with no more than 10% errors in at least 90% of LAD for psychological distress and moderate and heavy alcohol consumption. The MINI is strongly correlated with psychological distress (r = 0.910; p value < 0.001) and moderately with heavy drinking (r = 0.389; p value < 0.001). Psychological distress and heavy alcohol consumption are differently associated with socioeconomic and rurality indicators at the LSOA level. Associations further vary at the LAD level and regional variations are apparent.Spatial microsimulation may be an appropriate methodological approach for replicating social and demographic health patterns at the local level.