Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine: A global assessment of demand and supply balance.
Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine: A global assessment of demand and supply balance.
复制标题
Calmette-Guérin（BCG）疫苗：全球需求和供应平衡评估。
DOI：
10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.12.010
复制
发表时间：
2018-01-25
期刊：
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Friede M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cernuschi T;Malvolti S;Nickels E;Friede M
在过去十年中，所有区域、收入群体和采购方法的若干国家一直无法确保充足的卡介苗供应。虽然缺货的频率保持相当稳定，但由于制造问题，2014-2015年缺货的持续时间有所增加，引起了国家、区域和全球免疫利益攸关方的注意。这促使对供求动态进行深入分析，以确定供应风险的特征。这一分析是独一无二的，因为它提供了一个全球性的图景，以前的分析集中在通过联合国实体采购的一部分市场上。通过文献综述、供应商访谈、短缺评估、缺货和历史采购数据，以及需求预测，本分析显示2017年全球产能大幅增加：供应足以满足预测的卡介苗需求，并可能缓冲市场冲击。然而，风险仍然存在，主要是由于供应集中和生产工艺改进投资有限，以及需求不稳定。识别这些市场风险将有助于在三个领域实施风险缓解干预措施：（1）加强全球主要卫生行动者、国家和供应商之间的信息共享;（2）确定扩大产品注册和BCG生产过程投资的利益和激励措施;（3）与各国合作加强疫苗管理。
Over the past decade, several countries across all regions, income groups and procurement methods have been unable to secure sufficient BCG vaccine supply. While the frequency of stock-outs has remained rather stable, duration increased in 2014–2015 due to manufacturing issues and attracted the attention of national, regional and global immunization stakeholders. This prompted an in-depth analysis of supply and demand dynamics aiming to characterize supply risks. This analysis is unique as it provides a global picture, where previous analyses have focused on a portion of the market procuring through UN entities. Through literature review, supplier interviews, appraisal of shortages, stock-outs and historical procurement data, and through demand forecasting, this analysis shows an important increase in global capacity in 2017: supply is sufficient to meet forecasted BCG vaccine demand and possibly buffer market shocks. Nevertheless, risks remain mainly due to supply concentration and limited investment in production process improvements, as well as inflexibility in demand. Identification of these market risks will allow implementation of risk-mitigating interventions in three areas: (1) enhancing information sharing between major global health actors, countries and suppliers, (2) identifying interests and incentives to expand product registration and investment in the BCG manufacturing process, and (3) working with countries for tighter vaccine management.
登录
查看更多内容
来自哈萨克斯坦的不同来源的芽孢杆菌Callette-Guérin（BCG）疫苗儿童的比较结核病（TB）预防效果。
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Favorov M;Ali M;Tursunbayeva A;Aitmagambetova I;Kilgore P;Ismailov S;Chorba T
通讯作者：
Chorba T
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Schaltz-Buchholzer, Frederik;Frankel, Hannah Nortoft;Benn, Christine Stabell
通讯作者：
Benn, Christine Stabell
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Abdallah AM;Hill-Cawthorne GA;Otto TD;Coll F;Guerra-Assunção JA;Gao G;Naeem R;Ansari H;Malas TB;Adroub SA;Verboom T;Ummels R;Zhang H;Panigrahi AK;McNerney R;Brosch R;Clark TG;Behr MA;Bitter W;Pain A
通讯作者：
Pain A
影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Comstock, GW
通讯作者：
Comstock, GW
影响因子：
5.5
作者：
Lydon, Patrick;Schreiber, Benjamin;Senouci, Kamel
通讯作者：
Senouci, Kamel