Forecasting the path of China's CO2 emissions using province-level information
Forecasting the path of China's CO2 emissions using province-level information
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jeem.2007.10.002
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发表时间：
2008-05-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Carson, Richard T.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Auffhammer, Maximilian;Carson, Richard T.
我们的结果表明，中国二氧化碳（CO2）排放量的预期路径在过去五年中急剧增加。到2010年，中国排放量的预计增长幅度比《京都议定书》规定的减排幅度大好几倍。我们的估计是基于中国环境保护局的一个独特的省级面板数据集。该数据集包含了比目前使用的国家级时间序列更多的与中国可能的温室气体排放路径相关的信息。模型选择标准明确拒绝流行的静态环境库兹涅茨曲线规范，有利于一类动态模型的空间依赖性。(C)2008年爱思唯尔公司All rights reserved.
Our results suggest that the anticipated path of China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions has dramatically increased over the last five years. The magnitude of the projected increase in Chinese emissions out to 2010 is several times larger than reductions embodied in the Kyoto Protocol. Our estimates are based on a unique provincial-level panel data set from the Chinese Environmental Protection Agency. This data set contains considerably more information relevant to the path of likely Chinese greenhouse gas emissions than national level time series currently in use. Model selection criteria clearly reject the popular static environmental Kuznets curve specification in favor of a class of dynamic models with spatial dependence. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.