Creating an earthquake scenario in China: A case study in Weinan City, Shaanxi province
Creating an earthquake scenario in China: A case study in Weinan City, Shaanxi province
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101305
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
J. Rodgers;Guiwu Su;Wenhua Qi;D. Milledge;A. Densmore;C. Davis;P. England;John Young;Yue Cao;A. Chakos;Xiaoli Li;T. Sim;E. So;B. Parsons;Lei Sun;Junlei Yu;Chunlan Guo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Rodgers;Guiwu Su;Wenhua Qi;D. Milledge;A. Densmore;C. Davis;P. England;John Young;Yue Cao;A. Chakos;Xiaoli Li;T. Sim;E. So;B. Parsons;Lei Sun;Junlei Yu;Chunlan Guo
为了解决政府确定的自上而下的政策和地方层面的准备方法之间的差距，来自中国、英国和美国的一个团队开展了一个跨学科的参与性项目，为位于西安以东的陕西省渭南市的两个行政区制定地震情景。我们设计的情景研究和沟通材料在中国尚属首次，旨在帮助当地机构向当地决策者和公众描述和传达地震风险。渭南在1556年华县8/4级地震中被摧毁，这是中国迄今为止最致命的地震，并在1568年陕西高陵7级地震（也称为西安东北6/4级地震）中受损。我们选择重复1568年的地震，因为1556年华县地震的规模在渭河盆地（以及世界各地类似的构造环境）是极其罕见的。我们模拟了1568年地震的地面运动，准备了损失估计，进行了包括实地工作和当地咨询在内的实地调查，并进行了以灾害问题为重点的社会调查，以了解渭南的主要地震风险问题。我们采用讲故事的方法，用中文和英文创作了两个关于地震后果的科学叙述。一个是一个简短的图形小说，为公众提供防震和备震提示;另一个是一个叙述性故事，有技术内容和对当地相关机构的建议。这些叙述可以帮助人们直观地了解估计的损失和影响，并提供减灾和备灾建议，如果得到实施，将有助于减少地震的破坏和后果。
In efforts to address government-identified gaps between top-down policies and local-level preparedness approaches, a team from China, the UK and the US undertook a transdisciplinary, participatory project to develop an earthquake scenario for two administrative districts of Weinan, Shaanxi province, located east of Xi'an. We designed the scenario study and communication materials, a first of their kind in China, to help local agencies describe and communicate earthquake risk to local decision-makers and the public. Weinan was destroyed by the 1556 M8¼ Huaxian earthquake, China's deadliest so far, and damaged by the 1568 M~7 Shaanxi Gaoling earthquake (also known as the M6¾ Northeast Xi'an earthquake). We chose a repeat of this 1568 event, because earthquakes of the size of the 1556 Huaxian event are extremely rare in the Weihe basin (and similar tectonic environments worldwide). We modelled the ground motion of the 1568 event, prepared a loss estimate, conducted field charrettes comprising field work and local consultations, and carried out disaster issue-focused social surveys to understand Weinan's main earthquake risk problems. We used a storytelling approach to create two science-based narratives, in Chinese and English, of the scenario earthquake's aftermath. One is a short graphic novel with earthquake mitigation and preparedness tips for the general public; the other is a narrative story with technical content and recommendations for relevant local agencies. The narratives can help people visualize the estimated losses and impacts, and provide mitigation and preparedness recommendations that, if implemented, will help reduce earthquake damage and consequences.