Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries
Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2119
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发表时间：
2014-03-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Jennings, S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Barange, M.;Merino, G.;Jennings, S.
不断增长的人口和不断变化的饮食偏好正在增加全球对鱼类的需求（1），增加了对渔业可持续性的担忧（2）。在这里，我们开发并链接了67个海洋国家专属经济区的物理，生物和人类对气候变化的反应模型，这些专属经济区约占全球渔获量的60%，以预测气候变化对海洋渔业依赖程度不同的国家的产量影响。预测的渔业生产变化表明，高纬度地区的生产力增加，低/中纬度地区的生产力下降，但区域差异很大。除少数例外情况外，到2050年，鱼类生产潜力的增加和减少估计将
Growing human populations and changing dietary preferences are increasing global demands for fish(1), adding pressure to concerns over fisheries sustainability(2). Here we develop and link models of physical, biological and human responses to climate change in 67 marine national exclusive economic zones, which yield approximately 60% of global fish catches, to project climate change yield impacts in countries with different dependencies on marine fisheries(3). Predicted changes in fish production indicate increased productivity at high latitudes and decreased productivity at low/mid latitudes, with considerable regional variations. With few exceptions, increases and decreases in fish production potential by 2050 are estimated to be