Can farmers' adaptation to climate change be explained by socio-economic household-level variables?
Can farmers' adaptation to climate change be explained by socio-economic household-level variables?
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.11.012
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发表时间：
2012-02-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Tscherning, Karen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Below, Till B.;Mutabazi, Khamaldin D.;Tscherning, Karen
更好地理解影响农民适应气候变化的过程，对于确定脆弱群体以及制定有针对性的适应政策至关重要。然而，目前对于什么决定了农民的适应以及如何衡量它，人们知之甚少。在这项研究中，我们开发了一个基于活动的适应指数（AAI），并通过解释性因子分析和使用潜在变量的多元线性回归模型，探索社会经济变量与农民适应行为之间的关系。该模型在坦桑尼亚莫罗戈罗地区两个行政区的六个村庄进行了测试。姆拉利区代表一个农业潜力相对较高的系统，而盖罗区代表一个农业潜力较低的系统。我们通过家庭调查、农村快速评估以及利益相关者研讨会来收集数据。使用因子分析、多元线性回归、描述性统计方法和定性内容分析对数据进行分析。在适应的理论概念和可持续生计方法的背景下对实证结果进行了讨论。我们发现，对农村基础设施的公共投资、对投入品的可获取性和技术高效利用、对提供女性平等机会的良好教育系统的投资，以及对加强社会资本、农业推广和小额信贷服务的投资，是提高盖罗和姆拉利六个村庄农民适应能力的最佳途径。我们得出结论，新开发的AAI是一种简单但有前景的方法，它能够捕捉适应过程的复杂性，解决了先前指数研究的一些不足之处。（C）2011爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。
A better understanding of processes that shape farmers' adaptation to climate change is critical to identify vulnerable entities and to develop well-targeted adaptation policies. However, it is currently poorly understood what determines farmers' adaptation and how to measure it. In this study, we develop an activity-based adaptation index (AAI) and explore the relationship between socioeconomic variables and farmers' adaptation behavior by means of an explanatory factor analysis and a multiple linear regression model using latent variables. The model was tested in six villages situated in two administrative wards in the Morogoro region of Tanzania. The Mlali ward represents a system of relatively high agricultural potential, whereas the Gairo ward represents a system of low agricultural potential. A household survey, a rapid rural appraisal and, a stakeholder workshop were used for data collection. The data were analyzed using factor analysis, multiple linear regression, descriptive statistical methods and qualitative content analysis. The empirical results are discussed in the context of theoretical concepts of adaptation and the sustainable livelihood approach. We found that public investment in rural infrastructure, in the availability and technically efficient use of inputs, in a good education system that provides equal chances for women, and in the strengthening of social capital, agricultural extension and, microcredit services are the best means of improving the adaptation of the farmers from the six villages in Gairo and Mlali. We conclude that the newly developed AAI is a simple but promising way to capture the complexity of adaptation processes that addresses a number of shortcomings of previous index studies. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.