Costs of greenhouse gas abatement: meta-analysis of post-SRES mitigation scenarios
Costs of greenhouse gas abatement: meta-analysis of post-SRES mitigation scenarios
复制标题
温室气体减排成本：SRES 后缓解情景的荟萃分析
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2002
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Marcelo J. Villena
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Barker;J. Köhler;Marcelo J. Villena
经济分析对温室气体减缓政策的经济影响产生了很大不同的估计，从成本高到效益不大不等。这种差异的主要原因似乎是方法和假设的不同。本文分析了后sres1 （IPCC《排放情景特别报告》之后）模式对全球温室气体减缓成本的结果在多大程度上可以用该模式的特征和所采用的假设来解释。本研究应用meta分析方法结合数据的散点图来确定结果和离群数据点的范围。为sres后情景编制了情景和结果数据库，其主要优点是，所有7个可获得适当数据的模型都是使用相同的、独立定义的情景运行的。结果是强聚类的，只有少数结果超出了国内生产总值（GDP）的- 4%至0%的范围，二氧化碳减排与GDP减排之间存在很强的相关性。一组模型特征被发现是高度显著的（1%水平），解释了大约70%的方差。主要结论是，所有关于“减缓气候变化的GDP成本”的建模结果都应该受到导致估算的关键假设的限制。对这些假设的处理可导致将减缓与国内生产总值的增加或减少联系起来。
Economic analyses have produced widely differing estimates of the economic implications of policies for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, ranging from high costs to modest benefits. The main reason for the differences appears to be differences in approaches and assumptions. This paper analyzes the extent to which the post-SRES1 (after the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) model results for the global costs of GHG mitigation can be explained by the model’s characteristics and the assumptions adopted. The research applies meta-analysis methodology combined with scatter plots of the data to identify the ranges of the results and outlying data points. A database of scenarios and results was compiled for the post-SRES scenarios, which has the major advantage that all seven models for which suitable data are available have been run using the same, independently defined scenarios. The results are strongly clustered, with only a few results outside the range of −4% to 0% gross domestic product (GDP), with a strong correlation between CO2 reduction and GDP reduction. A set of model characteristics is found to be highly significant (1% level), explaining some 70% of the variance. The main conclusion is that all modeling results regarding “GDP costs of mitigating climate change” should be qualified by the key assumptions leading to the estimates. The treatment of these assumptions can lead to the mitigation being associated with increases in GDP or with reductions.