Climate change, thermal stress and mortality changes
Climate change, thermal stress and mortality changes
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DOI：
10.1016/s0277-9536(97)00162-7
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发表时间：
1998-02-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Martens, WJM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Martens, WJM
人为引起的气候变化的潜在影响之一是与热应激相关的死亡率变化；本文评估了有关平均气温与死亡率之间关系的现有文献。通过简单的荟萃分析，可以估计温度变化对死亡率的总体影响、心血管死亡率和呼吸系统死亡率。这些影响估计与根据三个大气环流模型 (GCM) 的气候变化情景对 20 个城市基线气候条件变化的预测相结合。结果表明，对于大多数城市来说，全球气候变化可能会导致死亡率下降，因为冬季死亡率下降。这种影响对于目前气候温和或寒冷的城市老年人的心血管死亡率最为明显。检查结果对生理和社会经济适应的敏感性。然而，需要更多的研究来扩展这项工作，纳入更广泛人群的数据。 (C) 1997 年由爱思唯尔科学有限公司出版。保留所有权利。
One of the potential effects of an anthropogenically induced climate change is a change in mortality related to thermal stress;In this paper, existing literature on the relationship between average temperatures and mortality is evaluated. By means of a simple meta-analysis an aggregated effect of a change in temperature on mortality is estimated for total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. These effect estimates are combined with projections of changes in baseline climate conditions of 20 cities, according to climate change scenarios of three General Circulation Models (GCMs). The results indicate that for most of the cities included, global climate change is likely to lead to a reduction in mortality rates due to decreasing winter mortality. This effect is most pronounced for cardiovascular mortality in elderly people in cities which experience temperate or cold climates at present. The sensitivity of the results to physiological and socio-economical adaptation is examined. However, more research is necessary to extend this work by inclusion of data from a wider range of populations. (C) 1997 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.