Impacts of Climate Change on Precipitation Climatology and Variability in Turkey
Impacts of Climate Change on Precipitation Climatology and Variability in Turkey
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气候变化对土耳其降水气候学和变率的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Levent Kurnaz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Türkeş;M. Turp;Nazan An;T. Ozturk;M. Levent Kurnaz
在本章中，土耳其的季节性降水气候学，极端天气条件和干旱条件的变化进行了评估，为2021-2050年期间相对于1971-2000年的参考期，使用区域气候模式模拟。未来气候条件的预测采用国际理论物理中心（ICTP）的强迫区域气候模型RegCM4.4和马克斯·普朗克气象研究所的MPI-ESM-MR全球气候模型进行模拟。MPI-ESM-MR的输出被用来生成10公里分辨率的数据，在RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景下的双重嵌套方法。RegCM4.4在再现土耳其观测到的气候的季节时间尺度性能进行了测试，通过使用全球气候模式的输出。预测结果显示，根据区域模式的输出，该区域几乎所有地区的降水量都大幅减少。预计干旱的程度将加剧。根据预测结果，预计该区域在不久的将来会出现更干旱的情况。因此，预计土耳其将出现比目前更干燥的气候条件。
In this chapter, changes in seasonal precipitation climatology, extreme weather conditions, and aridity conditions of Turkey are evaluated for the period of 2021–2050 with respect to the reference period of 1971–2000 by using regional climate model simulations. Projections of future climate conditions are modeled by forcing Regional Climate Model, RegCM4.4 of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) with MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. The outputs of MPI-ESM-MR are used to generate 10 km resolution data by the double nesting method under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The seasonal time-scale performance of RegCM4.4 in reproducing the observed climatology over Turkey is tested by using the output of the global climate model. The projection results show a strong decrease in precipitation for almost all parts of the domain according to the output of the regional model. The intensity of drought conditions is projected to increase. According to the projection results, more arid conditions are expected in the region for the near future. Therefore, drier than present climate conditions are projected to occur more intensely over Turkey.