An Example of the Value of Strong Climatological Signals in Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting: Hurricane Ivan (2004)
An Example of the Value of Strong Climatological Signals in Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting: Hurricane Ivan (2004)
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强气候信号在热带气旋路径预报中的价值示例：飓风伊万（2004 年）
DOI：
10.1175/mwr3135.1
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发表时间：
2006
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
B. Fiedler
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
B. Barrett;L. Leslie;B. Fiedler
摘要自1970年以来，大西洋盆地的热带气旋（TC）路径预报稳步改善。这一改进主要与数值天气预报（NWP）模型的进步有关。与此同时，除少数例外情况外，统计轨道预测方案的开发和业务使用相对减少。直到20世纪80年代末，统计方案才提供了最准确的TC路径预报。在这份说明中，它表明，增加对全球NWP模式的依赖并不总是保证最好的预测。本文以2004年大西洋热带气旋季的飓风伊万为例，说明强气候信号仍然可以为热带气旋路径预报增加大量价值，以最小的计算成本提高准确性和及时性。在2004年9月初的8天时间里，12个实用数值预报模式多次错误地预测飓风伊万将以显著的西北方向移动。
Abstract Since 1970, tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts have improved steadily in the Atlantic basin. This improvement has been linked primarily to advances in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Concurrently, with few exceptions, the development and operational use of statistical track prediction schemes have experienced a relative decline. Statistical schemes provided the most accurate TC track forecasts until approximately the late 1980s. In this note, it is shown that increased reliance on the global NWP models does not always guarantee the best forecast. Here, Hurricane Ivan is used from the 2004 Atlantic TC season as a classical example, and reminder, of how strong climatological signals still can add substantial value to TC track forecasts, in the form of improved accuracy and increased timeliness at minimal computational cost. In an 8-day period in early September 2004, Hurricane Ivan was repeatedly, and incorrectly, forecast by 12 operational NWP models to move with a significant northw...