What are randomised controlled trials good for?
What are randomised controlled trials good for?
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DOI：
10.1007/s11098-009-9450-2
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发表时间：
2010-01-01
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
Cartwright, Nancy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cartwright, Nancy
随机对照试验（RCT）被广泛认为是建立因果关系结论的金标准。在理想的情况下，他们确保治疗“导致”实验结果。但还能去哪？这是一个关于外部有效性的古老问题。我指出，这个问题有两种重要的不同形式：实验所证明的特定因果结论在目标情况下是真的吗？在那里实施治疗会有什么结果？本文解释了因果关系的概率理论如何意味着RCT可以建立因果关系的结论，从而提供了一个解释到底是什么因果关系的结论。澄清结论的确切形式表明，它在新的环境中需要什么，以及需要多少才能看到实施治疗的实际结果。
Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are widely taken as the gold standard for establishing causal conclusions. Ideally conducted they ensure that the treatment 'causes' the outcome-in the experiment. But where else? This is the venerable question of external validity. I point out that the question comes in two importantly different forms: Is the specific causal conclusion warranted by the experiment true in a target situation? What will be the result of implementing the treatment there? This paper explains how the probabilistic theory of causality implies that RCTs can establish causal conclusions and thereby provides an account of what exactly that causal conclusion is. Clarifying the exact form of the conclusion shows just what is necessary for it to hold in a new setting and also how much more is needed to see what the actual outcome would be there were the treatment implemented.