SEQUENCES OF SOCIAL EVENTS - CONCEPTS AND METHODS FOR THE ANALYSIS OF ORDER IN SOCIAL PROCESSES
SEQUENCES OF SOCIAL EVENTS - CONCEPTS AND METHODS FOR THE ANALYSIS OF ORDER IN SOCIAL PROCESSES
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DOI：
10.1080/01615440.1983.10594107
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发表时间：
1983-01-01
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
ABBOTT, A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
ABBOTT, A
我们如何对一系列社会事件进行概括呢？在过去，这样的序列通常是历史学家的领域。然而，历史学家几乎不喜欢一概而论。这是社会学家的概括，他们很少谈到序列。本文旨在弥合这一差距。当然，在这一领域已经有了工作。比较主义者正在从他们所在的河边扩大规模，一次接手两个、三个或十个案件。社会学家正从彼岸迁出，使用马尔可夫模型来生成各类社会叙事。本文通过对关于社会事件序列的概念性和方法论问题的临时概述，提出了一条跨越剩余水域的线。这类序列的基本性质是熟悉的。它们是有开头、中间和结尾的故事。在这些故事中，事件的结果不仅取决于眼前，还取决于遥远的过去和随后的发展。秩序会带来不同。历史叙事通常同时涉及几个这样的序列或故事，并在它们的整体组合中发现相当大的·波动性。尽管潜在的原因在这样的叙事中的每一个单独的序列中起作用，但正是特定时刻各种序列的意外相互作用推动了叙事的向前发展。
How can we generalize about sequences of social events? In the past, such sequences have generally been the territory of historians. Yet, historians are little given to generalization. It is the sociologists who generalize, and they have said little about sequences. This paper aims to bridge the gap. Of course, there is already work in this area. Comparativists are building out from their side of the river, taking on two or three or ten cases at once. Sociologists are moving out from the other shore, using Markov models to generate classes of social narratives. This paper throws a line across the remaining water by giving a temporary survey of the conceptual and methodological problems of generalizing about sequences of social events.The fundamental properties of such sequences are familiar. They are stories with beginnings, middles, and ends. In these stories, the outcome of events depends not only on the immediate, but also on the distant past and on its sequential development. Order makes a difference. Historical narratives usually involve several such sequences or stories at once and find considerable· volatility in their overall combination. Although underlying causes are at work in each of the separate sequences in such a narrative, it is the accidental interplay of various sequences at a given moment that moves the narrative forward.