Driving forces and future trends on total nitrogen loss of planting in China
Driving forces and future trends on total nitrogen loss of planting in China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envpol.2020.115660
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发表时间：
2020-12-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Xu Yan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu Liyuan;Zheng Xiangqun;Xu Yan
氮素生产是过去世纪全球变化的主要方面之一。这种变化在中国最为剧烈。了解种植业氮素流失的变化规律及其驱动力对我国农业的可持续发展具有重要意义。基于全国农业污染调查数据，分析了2007 - 2016年中国实施“测土配方施肥”和“减量增效”减排战略后，总氮流失量总体呈下降趋势。结构方程模型结果表明，人为驱动因子和自然条件对TN流失的通径系数分别为0.934和-0.137，说明人为驱动因子对TN流失的影响大于自然条件。在人为驱动因素方面，化肥和农药的使用是影响土壤TN流失的主要因素，通径系数分别为0.958和0.946，主要与化肥和农药的过量施用有关。在自然条件下，相对湿度、供水状况和年降水量是影响TN流失的主导因素，表明湿润土壤通过促进氨挥发、反硝化和氮素淋溶，增加了TN的流失。预测2050年，在两种情景下，特别是高氮损失情景下，中国将面临种植业氮损失增加的高风险，这表明中国的减排战略不能松懈。在此，中国氮素流失的现状和未来趋势为中国氮素减排策略提供了方向性和针对性，有效地预防和控制农业面源污染。(c)2020爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Nitrogen production is one of the major aspects of global change over the past century. Nowhere is this change more dramatic than in China. Understanding the variations and driving forces of nitrogen loss from planting is critical to the sustainable development of Chinese agriculture. Here we found total nitrogen (TN) loss of China showed an overall downward trend from 2007 to 2016, as a result of abatement strategies for China on "Soil Testing and Formula Fertilization" and "Reducing Fertilizer Application while Increase the Efficiency", based on the data of National Agricultural Pollution Survey. The results of structural equation model showed that the path coefficient of anthropogenic drivers and natural conditions on TN loss were 0.934 and-0.137 respectively, suggesting that anthropogenic drivers had greater effects on TN loss than natural conditions. In terms of anthropogenic drivers, fertilizer usage and consumption of chemical pesticides were the two major factors affecting TN loss with path coefficients of 0.958 and 0.946, respectively, which was mainly related to their over-application. For natural conditions, relative humidity, water supply situation, and annual precipitation were found to be the dominant factors affecting TN loss, revealing that moist soils increased TN loss by enhancing ammonia volatilization, denitrification and nitrogen leaching. Forecasts for 2050, under two scenarios especially for the high TN loss scenario, the indication sifts that China will face a high risk of increasing TN loss from planting, suggesting that China's abatement strategies cannot be slackened. Here, the current status and future trends of China's nitrogen loss provide direction and pertinence to Chinese abatement strategies for nitrogen, effectively preventing and controlling agricultural non-point source pollution. (c) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.