Mechanical and Psychological Effects of Electoral Reform
Mechanical and Psychological Effects of Electoral Reform
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选举改革的机械和心理影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Olle Folke
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jon H. Fiva;Olle Folke
Duverger（1954）指出，选举制度的变化将产生两种类型的影响：机械效应，以及政治代理人对此的预期反应，他将其称为心理效应。由于这两种效应同时发生，因此凭经验区分这两种效应很复杂。在本文中，我们使用大量反事实的选举结果来解决这个问题。我们的申请基于挪威全国范围的市政选举改革，该改革将席位分配方法从德洪特更改为修改后的圣拉格。尽管这次选举改革的规模相对较小，但我们记录了巨大的心理影响。
Duverger (1954) noted that changes in electoral systems will have two types of effects: mechanical effects, and reactions of political agents in anticipation of these, which he referred to as psychological effects. It is complicated to empirically separate the two effects since these occur simultaneously. In this paper we use a large set of counterfactual election outcomes to address this issue. Our application is based on a nationwide municipal electoral reform in Norway, which changed the seat allocation method from d’Hondt to modified Sainte-Lague. Even though this electoral reform is of a relatively small magnitude, we document substantial psychological effects.