Application of system dynamics in analyzing the carrying capacity of water resources in Yiwu City, China
Application of system dynamics in analyzing the carrying capacity of water resources in Yiwu City, China
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系统动力学在义乌市水资源承载力分析中的应用
DOI：
10.1016/j.matcom.2007.11.018
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发表时间：
2008-12-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Luo, Gao-Yuan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Feng, Li-Hua;Zhang, Xing-Cai;Luo, Gao-Yuan
运用基于信息扩散理论的风险分析方法，构建了水资源短缺风险评估模型。该模型在浙江省义乌市中国进行了应用演示。基于小样本的分析结果，本研究表明，本模型比传统模型更稳定和有效。利用风险评价结果，从生态角度对水资源承载能力进行分析。在本研究中，水资源承载能力被定义为在良好的生态条件下，水资源在社会发展的某些阶段能够承受的最大适宜于支持人类活动的水量。对义乌市进行了进一步的研究，结果表明，该市的缺水与水源类型无关，但可以从水质和节约两个方面进行分类。为了验证本文的理论研究结果，作者模拟了未来水资源管理政策条件下水资源承载能力的变化。这一模拟使用了系统动力学(SD)模型，基于该市过去20年收集的历史数据和政府在当前至2020年期间提高居民生活水平的计划。同时指出，单纯以牺牲环境为代价追求经济的快速发展和以减速发展促进环境保护对义乌来说都是不可取的。同时兼顾经济发展和环境保护，可能会产生更好的综合效果。但是，如果维持目前的供水水平，但在不久的将来不增加，即使在这个方案下，义乌的供水也无法满足要求。在这种情况下，只有促进更有效地利用水资源和节水方案，以及加强对环境保护的长期投资，才能有效地提高该地区的水资源承载能力。(C)2007年iMac。爱思唯尔出版，版权所有。
A risk assessment model for water shortage is constructed using a risk analysis method based on the in formation diffusion theory. The application of this model is demonstrated in the city of Yiwu in Zhejiang Province, China. Based on the analytical results from a small sample, this study indicates that the present model is more stable and effective than the traditional model. Risk assessment results are used to analyze the carrying capacity of water resources from an ecological angle. For this study, the carrying capacity of water resources is defined as the maximum volume of water suitable for supporting human activity in certain stages of social development that can be borne by water resources under favorable ecological conditions. Further study on Yiwu is also performed, with results indicating that water shortages in this city are not related to types of water source, but can be classified in terms of water quality and conservation. To verify the results of theoretical investigation in this paper, the authors simulate changes in the carrying capacity of water resources under the conditions of future water management policies. This simulation uses the system dynamics (SD) model, based on the historical data collected by the city over the past 20 years and governmental plans to raise inhabitants' living standards between the present and 2020. The paper simultaneously indicates that both singularly pursuing fast economic development at the expense of the environment and promoting environmental protection via reduced economic development are undesirable for Yiwu. Simultaneously giving consideration to both the economic development and environmental protection is likely to produce better overall results. However, if the present water supply level is maintained but does not increase in the near future, Yiwu's water supply will be unable to satisfy requirements even under this scheme. In this case, the carrying capacity of water resources in the region can only be effectively improved by promoting more efficient use of water and water conservation schemes, as well as strengthening long-term investment in environmental protection. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.