Confidence regions of estimated parameters for ecological systems
Confidence regions of estimated parameters for ecological systems
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/s0304-3800(03)00068-1
复制
发表时间：
2003-07-15
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Checchi, N
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Marsili-Libelli, S;Guerrizio, S;Checchi, N
生态模型的参数估计通常采用数值搜索算法。确定以这种方式获得的参数值的置信边界是一个具有重要实际意义的问题。本文提出了一种方法来估计这样的区域在两种方式，无论是基于Hessian矩阵或Fisher信息矩阵（Hessian）。在两种近似中存在概念上的差异：Hessian方法基于灵敏度轨迹，而Hessian展开取决于误差泛函的形状。通过对这两种方法的比较，得到了一种判别方法，可以有效地检测出不准确的估计结果。Hessian方法和Hessian方法的区别在于输出的二阶导数项。功能这种差异被用来评估成功的估计，因为这两种方法产生相同的置信度估计，只有当搜索-终止-在最佳参数值。该方法被证明与参考一对广泛使用的动力学：莫诺动力学和理查兹逻辑函数应用于藻类生长。结果表明，在这两种情况下，这种方法相比，有利的剩余相关分析，似乎有更多的歧视的权力。(C)2003-Elsevier Science B. V.保留所有夜晚。
The parameters of ecological models,are usually estimated through numerical search algorithms. Determining confidence boundaries for the parameter values obtained in such a way is a problem of great practical importance. In this paper a method is proposed to estimate such regions in two ways, based on either the Hessian matrix or the Fisher Information Matrix (FIM). There is a conceptual difference in the two-approximations: the FIM approach is,based on the sensitivity trajectories, whereas the Hessian expansion depends on the shape of the error functional. From a comparison between the two approaches, a discriminating method is obtained to detect inaccurate estimation-results. The Hessian and FIM approaches differ by the second derivative terms of the output. function. This difference is used to assess the success-of the estimation, because the two methods yield the same confidence estimate only if the search-terminates-at the optimal parameter value. The method is demonstrated with reference to a pair of widely used dynamics: the Monod kinetics and the Richards logistic-function applied to algal growth. It is shown that in both cases this method compares favourably with the residual correlation analysis and appears to have more discriminatory power. (C) 2003-Elsevier Science B.V. All nights reserved.