Estimating transmission intensity for a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger: lessons for intervention
Estimating transmission intensity for a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger: lessons for intervention
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DOI：
10.1016/j.trstmh.2005.10.014
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发表时间：
2006-09-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Guerin, P. J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Grais, R. F.;Ferrari, M. J.;Guerin, P. J.
这项研究的目的是估计尼日尔尼亚美2003-2004年麻疹疫情的有效繁殖率。利用对尼亚美2003-2004年疫情期间报告病例的回顾和前瞻性研究的结果，我们使用一种允许根据疫情系列进行估计的最新方法，估计了避免未来疫情所需的基本生殖比、有效生殖比(RE)和最低接种覆盖率。我们提供尼亚美境内地理区域的这些估计，从而确定高危社区。全市的估计RE为2.8，大大低于之前的估计，这可能有助于解释疫情持续时间较长的原因。在疫情期间和不同社区内，传播强度不同(RE范围：1.4-4.7)。我们的结果表明，目前易感儿童的疫苗接种覆盖率应至少提高67%(疫苗效力90%)，才能使全市疫苗覆盖率达到90%。这项研究强调了疫苗接种覆盖率的地方差异对疫情控制措施的潜在影响的重要性。在尼亚美，疫情在30周内从一个区传播到另一个区的时空传播表明，该市内有针对性的干预措施可能会产生影响。(C)2005年皇家热带医学和卫生学会。爱思唯尔有限公司出版。保留所有权利。
The objective of this study is to estimate the effective reproductive ratio for the 2003-2004 measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger. Using the results of a retrospective and prospective study of reported cases within Niamey during the 2003-2004 epidemic, we estimate the basic reproductive ratio, effective reproductive ratio (RE) and minimal vaccination coverage necessary to avert future epidemics using a recent method allowing for estimation based on the epidemic case series. We provide these estimates for geographic areas within Niamey, thereby identifying neighbourhoods at high risk. The estimated citywide RE was 2.8, considerably Lower than previous estimates, which may help explain the long duration of the epidemic. Transmission intensity varied during the course of the epidemic and within different neighbourhoods (RE range: 1.4-4.7). Our results indicate that vaccination coverage in currently susceptible children should be increased by at least 67% (vaccine efficacy 90%) to produce a citywide vaccine coverage of 90%. This research highlights the importance of local differences in vaccination coverage on the potential impact of epidemic control measures. The spatial-temporal spread of the epidemic from district to district in Niamey over 30 weeks suggests that targeted interventions within the city could have an impact. (C) 2005 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.