Global Assessment of the Merit-Order Effect and Revenue Cannibalisation for Variable Renewable Energy
Global Assessment of the Merit-Order Effect and Revenue Cannibalisation for Variable Renewable Energy
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可变可再生能源的优先效应和收入蚕食的全球评估
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.3741232
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
M. Jansen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Halttunen;I. Staffell;R. Slade;R. Green;Y. Saint;M. Jansen
风能和太阳能的快速发展一直是全球脱碳的主要推动力。他们倾向于降低批发电价，包括时间加权平均值（择优顺序效应）和他们自己的产出加权平均值（价格蚕食）。虽然这些影响已被广泛观察到，但大多数先前的研究都集中在单个国家。在这里，我们比较了欧洲、北美、澳大利亚和日本的37个电力市场，并探讨了它们之间的差异。在几乎所有被研究的国家都观察到优势秩序和同类相食效应。然而，只有在德国、西班牙、波兰、葡萄牙、丹麦和加州，可再生能源发电量能解释批发电价波动的10%以上。可变可再生能源渗透率每增加一个百分点，全球平均优序效应为0.68±0.54欧元/兆瓦时，随着渗透率的提高，这一效应会下降。风能渗透率每增加一个百分点，风力发电场的收入就会减少0.23%（0.16欧元/兆瓦时），太阳能光伏发电的收入则会减少1.94%（0.90欧元/兆瓦时）。
The rapid growth of wind and solar power has been a major driver for decarbonisation worldwide. They tend to reduce wholesale electricity prices, both the time-weighted average (the merit‑order effect) and their own output-weighted average (price cannibalisation). Whilst these effects have been widely observed, most previous studies focus on single countries. Here, we compare 37 electricity markets across Europe, North America, Australia and Japan and explore variations between them.Merit-order and cannibalisation effects are observed in nearly all countries studied. However, only in Germany, Spain, Poland, Portugal, Denmark and California can renewable output explain more than 10% of variation in wholesale electricity prices. The global average merit‑order effect is €0.68±€0.54 /MWh per percentage point increase in variable renewable energy penetration, and this falls with higher penetration. Revenues captured by wind farms decrease by 0.23% (€0.16 /MWh) for each percentage point increase of wind penetration and by 1.94% (€0.90 /MWh) for solar PV.