Avian-human influenza epidemic model
Avian-human influenza epidemic model
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禽-人流感流行模型
DOI：
10.1016/j.mbs.2006.08.001
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发表时间：
2007-05-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Liu, Xianning
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Iwami, Shingo;Takeuchi, Yasuhiro;Liu, Xianning
提出了一个数学模型来解释禽流感从鸟类世界传播到人类世界。我们的数学模型警告说，如果人类不阻止禽流感的传播，可能会发生两种类型的禽流感爆发。此外，这表明，尽管感染者总数保持在低水平，我们也不能感到宽慰。为了防止禽流感在人类世界的传播，不仅要对感染禽流感的禽类采取扑杀措施，而且在已经发生变异型禽流感的情况下，还要对感染变异型禽流感的人类采取隔离措施。特别是，后一项措施被证明对阻止第二次禽流感大流行很重要。(c)2006年爱思唯尔公司All rights reserved.
A mathematical model is proposed to interpret the spread of avian influenza from the bird world to the human world. Our mathematical model warns that two types of the outbreak of avian influenza may occur if the humans do not prevent the spread of avian influenza. Moreover, it suggests that we cannot feel relieved although the total infected humans are kept at low level. In order to prevent spread of avian Influenza in the human world, we must take the measures not only for the birds infected with avian influenza to exterminate but also for the humans infected with mutant avian influenza to quarantine when mutant avian influenza has already occurred. In particular, the latter measure is shown to be important to stop the second pandemic of avian influenza. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.