Preoperative nomogram predicting the 10-year probability of prostate cancer recurrence after radical prostatectomy
Preoperative nomogram predicting the 10-year probability of prostate cancer recurrence after radical prostatectomy
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DOI：
10.1093/jnci/djj190
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发表时间：
2006-05-17
影响因子：
10.3
通讯作者：
Kattan, Michael W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Stephenson, Andrew J.;Scardino, Peter T.;Kattan, Michael W.
根据临床分期、血清PSA和活检Gleason分级，现有的术前nomogram（前列腺特异性抗原）预测根治性前列腺切除术后5年前列腺癌复发的概率。在更新和增强的nomogram中，我们将预测延长到10年，增加了系统活检结果的预后信息，并使预测能够根据手术年份进行调整。采用Cox回归分析对我院两位大容量外科医生治疗的1978例患者的临床资料进行建模。在1545例患者的独立队列中对nomogram进行了外部验证，一致性指数为0.79，并根据观察到的结果进行了很好的校准。纳入阳性和阴性活检芯的数量提高了模型的预测准确性。因此，一种新的术前形态图提供了根治性前列腺切除术后10年内前列腺癌复发的可靠预测。
An existing preoperative nomogram predicts the probability of prostate cancer recurrence, defined by prostate-specific antigen (PSA), at 5 years after radical prostatectomy based on clinical stage, serum PSA, and biopsy Gleason grade. In an updated and enhanced nomogram, we have extended the predictions to 10 years, added the prognostic information of systematic biopsy results, and enabled the predictions to be adjusted for the year of surgery. Cox regression analysis was used to model the clinical information for 1978 patients treated by two high-volume surgeons from our institution. The nomogram was externally validated on an independent cohort of 1545 patients with a concordance index of 0.79 and was well calibrated with respect to observed outcome. The inclusion of the number of positive and negative biopsy cores enhanced the predictive accuracy of the model. Thus, a new preoperative nomogram provides robust predictions of prostate cancer recurrence up to 10 years after radical prostatectomy.