Predictive modelling of COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria
Predictive modelling of COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria
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DOI：
10.1016/j.idm.2020.08.003
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发表时间：
2020-01-01
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Aladeitan, Benedita B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ogundokun, Roseline O.;Lukman, Adewale F.;Aladeitan, Benedita B.
冠状病毒的爆发是第二次世界大战以来最引人注目的世界性危机。2019年末起源于武汉的中国大流行影响了世界所有国家，并引发了一场全球经济危机，其影响将在未来几年内感受到。这就需要监测和预测新冠肺炎的流行情况，以便进行适当的控制。线性回归模型是预测某些因素对新冠肺炎爆发的影响并采取必要措施应对这场危机的突出工具。数据摘自NCDC网站，时间跨度为2020年3月31日至2020年5月29日。在本研究中，我们采用普通最小二乘估计来衡量旅行历史和接触者对新冠肺炎在尼日利亚传播的影响，并做出预测。该模型是在尼日利亚联邦政府实施旅行限制之前和之后进行的。拟合的模型与数据集很好地吻合，并且根据所进行的诊断检查没有任何违规。结果表明，政府在执行旅行限制方面做出了正确的决定，因为我们观察到，旅行历史和接触过的人使人们感染新冠肺炎的几率分别增加了85%和88%。新冠肺炎的这一预测表明，政府应该确保大多数旅行社在重新开业之前应该做好更好的预防和准备工作。(C)2020作者。爱思唯尔B.V.代表科爱通信有限公司制作和主办。
The coronavirus outbreak is the most notable world crisis since the Second WorldWar. The pandemic that originated from Wuhan, China in late 2019 has affected all the nations of the world and triggered a global economic crisis whose impact will be felt for years to come. This necessitates the need to monitor and predict COVID-19 prevalence for adequate control. The linear regression models are prominent tools in predicting the impact of certain factors on COVID-19 outbreak and taking the necessary measures to respond to this crisis. The data was extracted from the NCDC website and spanned from March 31, 2020 to May 29, 2020. In this study, we adopted the ordinary least squares estimator to measure the impact of travelling history and contacts on the spread of COVID-19 in Nigeria and made a prediction. The model was conducted before and after travel restriction was enforced by the Federal government of Nigeria. The fitted model fitted well to the dataset and was free of any violation based on the diagnostic checks conducted. The results show that the government made a right decision in enforcing travelling restriction because we observed that travelling history and contacts made increases the chances of people being infected with COVID-19 by 85% and 88% respectively. This prediction of COVID-19 shows that the government should ensure that most travelling agency should have better precautions and preparations in place before re-opening. (C) 2020 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.