Quantitative synthesis of temperature, CO2, rainfall, and adaptation effects on global crop yields
Quantitative synthesis of temperature, CO2, rainfall, and adaptation effects on global crop yields
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DOI：
10.1016/j.eja.2020.126041
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发表时间：
2020-04-01
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Ben-Ari, Tamara
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Makowski, David;Marajo-Petitzon, Elodie;Ben-Ari, Tamara
众所周知，气候变化主要通过气温升高、降雨模式改变和大气中二氧化碳浓度增加来影响作物产量。尽管在一些单独的研究中讨论了这些因素的潜在影响，但最近还没有发表任何综合报告，以提供气候变化对作物产量的影响的量化估计，无论是否有适应战略。在本文中，我们综合了广泛的实验或模型研究，以估计在全球尺度上，在有和没有适应策略的情况下，温度、二氧化碳浓度和降水的边际和综合影响导致的作物产量变化。作物的产量敏感性是通过区分C3和C4作物来估计的。对于C3作物，我们的结果表明，即使在+4摄氏度，适应(+7.25%)和二氧化碳(+100ppm+9%)的积极影响足以抵消气温上升(+1摄氏度-2.4%)的负面影响。另一方面，对于玉米(即我们数据库中唯一的C4植物物种)，二氧化碳浓度增加的积极影响相对较低，而适应没有显著影响导致更高的产量损失。在气温升高的情况下，玉米实现产量增加所需的二氧化碳浓度增加的最低水平远高于C3作物，尤其是小麦。适应的估计影响是不确定的，特别是对大豆和水稻，但对玉米也是如此，玉米缺乏显著的适应影响，这可能至少部分是由于数据有限。我们的结果表明，在气候变化影响的前瞻性研究中，二氧化碳对作物产量的影响不应被忽视。我们的分析还强调了提高我们对适应战略在减轻气候变化影响方面的有效性的认识的重要性。
Climate change is known to impact crop yields, mainly through increased temperatures, changing rainfall patterns and increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Although the potential effects of each of these factors have been discussed in a number of separate studies, no recent synthesis has been published to provide quantitative estimates of climate change impacts on crop yields, with or without adaptation strategies. In this paper, we synthetize a broad range of experimental or modeling studies to estimate, at the global scale, crop yield changes resulting from the marginal and combined effects of temperature, CO2 concentration and precipitation, with and without adaptation strategies. Crop yield sensitivities are estimated by distinguishing between C3 and C4 crops. For C3 crops, our results show that the positive effects of adaptation (+7.25 %) and CO2 (+9% for +100 ppm) are high enough to offset the negative effects of temperature increase (-2.4 % for +1 degrees C), even at +4 degrees C. On the other hand, for maize (i.e., the only C4 plant species in our database) the somewhat low positive effect from increased CO2 concentration and the absence of a significant effect of adaptation lead to higher yield losses, in the order of -10 % for +4 degrees C. The minimum level of CO2 concentration increase requested to achieve a yield gain under increased temperature conditions is much higher for maize than for C3 crops, in particular for wheat. The estimated effects of adaptation are uncertain, especially for soybean and rice, but also for maize, where the absence of a significant adaptation effect is probably at least partly due to limited data availability. Our results demonstrate that CO2 effects on crop yields should not be overlooked in foresight studies on the impacts of climate change. Our analysis also highlights the importance of improving our knowledge of how effective adapation strategies are in mitigating the impact of climate change.