DIRECTLY TRANSMITTED INFECTIOUS-DISEASES - CONTROL BY VACCINATION
DIRECTLY TRANSMITTED INFECTIOUS-DISEASES - CONTROL BY VACCINATION
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DOI：
10.1126/science.7063839
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发表时间：
1982-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
MAY, RM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
ANDERSON, RM;MAY, RM
直接传播的病毒和细菌感染的动力学的数学模型的指导下，观察到的模式，在特定年龄的发病率的一些常见的儿童疾病的人类，之前和之后的疫苗接种计划的到来。对于那些表现出反复流行行为的感染，流行间期可以与表征感染的参数（如潜伏期和感染期以及首次感染的平均年龄）相关;这种关系与各种儿童疾病的数据一致。根据接种疫苗的人口比例和特定年龄的疫苗接种时间表，给出了根除疾病的标准。这些标准与英国麻疹和百日咳疫苗接种计划的详细分析进行了比较，并对根除这些疾病所需的保护水平进行了估计。
Mathematical models for the dynamics of directly transmitted viral and bacterial infections are guides to the understanding of observed patterns in the age specific incidence of some common childhood diseases of humans, before and after the advent of vaccination programs. For those infections that show recurrent epidemic behavior, the interepidemic period can be related to parameters characterizing the infection (such as latent and infectious periods and the average age of first infection); this relation agrees with the data for a variety of childhood diseases. Criteria for the eradication of a disease are given, in terms of the proportion of the population to be vaccinated and the age-specific vaccination schedule. These criteria are compared with a detailed analysis of the vaccination programs against measles and whooping cough in Britain, and estimates are made of the levels of protection that would be needed to eradicate these diseases.