Three Decades of Land Cover Change in East Africa
Three Decades of Land Cover Change in East Africa
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DOI：
10.3390/land10020150
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发表时间：
2021-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Cohen, Warren B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bullock, Eric L.;Healey, Sean P.;Cohen, Warren B.
撒哈拉以南东非的人口增长率是世界上最高的，这对土地覆被改变造成了越来越大的压力。然而，迄今为止，尚未对区域土地覆盖变化进行全面评估，大多数长期趋势尚未量化。使用基于卫星的历史土地覆盖变化观测的设计样本，我们估计了1998年至2017年埃塞俄比亚，肯尼亚，乌干达，马拉维，卢旺达，坦桑尼亚和赞比亚9个土地覆盖类别的面积和趋势。我们的分析发现，东非的耕地面积增加了18，154，000（+/-1，580，000）公顷，即34.8%。转换主要发生在开阔的草地、树木繁茂的草地和开阔的森林，导致木本植被类大规模减少。我们观察到更多的转换（约2000万公顷）木本类少木本类比演替方向增加树木和灌木。在我们的样本中的空间格局突出区域土地覆盖转换热点，如中部赞比西亚Miombo林地，作为与自然生态系统保护有关的潜在关注领域。我们的调查结果反映了快速增长的人口正在进入新的地区，在三十年的时间里，定居点的面积增加了43.5%。我们的研究结果显示了在空间和统计上受三十年人类发展影响最大的地区和生态区。
Population growth rates in Sub-Saharan East Africa are among the highest in the world, creating increasing pressure for land cover conversion. To date, however, there has been no comprehensive assessment of regional land cover change, and most long-term trends have not yet been quantified. Using a designed sample of satellite-based observations of historical land cover change, we estimate the areas and trends in nine land cover classes from 1998 to 2017 in Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Malawi, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Zambia. Our analysis found an 18,154,000 (+/- 1,580,000) ha, or 34.8%, increase in the area of cropland in East Africa. Conversion occurred primarily from Open Grasslands, Wooded Grasslands, and Open Forests, causing a large-scale reduction in woody vegetation classes. We observed far more conversion (by approximately 20 million hectares) of woody classes to less-woody classes than succession in the direction of increasing trees and shrubs. Spatial patterns within our sample highlight regional land cover conversion hotspots, such as the Central Zambezian Miombo Woodlands, as potential areas of concern related to the conservation of natural ecosystems. Our findings reflect a rapidly growing population that is moving into new areas, with a 43.5% increase in the area of Settlements over the three-decade period. Our results show the areas and ecoregions most impacted by three decades of human development, both spatially and statistically.