Damage Costs of Climate Change through Intensification of Tropical Cyclone Activities: An Application of FUND
Damage Costs of Climate Change through Intensification of Tropical Cyclone Activities: An Application of FUND
复制标题
热带气旋活动加剧造成的气候变化损失成本：基金的应用
DOI：
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Anthoff
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Daiju Narita;R. Tol;D. Anthoff
气候变化可能加剧热带气旋活动，扩大其负面经济影响。我们模拟的直接经济影响的热带气旋增强气候变化的综合评估模型气候框架的不确定性，谈判和分配（基金），版本3.4。结果表明，在基本情况下，（基于中期估计的参数水平），到2100年，全球因气候变化影响而造成的热带气旋直接经济损失将达到190亿美元（与基线水平几乎相同，即目前热带气旋造成的全球损失），而占世界国内生产总值的比例将为0.006%。美国和中国占绝对损失的很大一部分，而如果按GDP的比例计算，小岛屿国家遭受的损失最大。模型结果对基线的选择和风暴损害的风速弹性敏感。
Climate change may intensify tropical cyclone activities and amplify their negative economic effects. We simulated the direct economic impact of tropical cyclones enhanced by climate change with the integrated assessment model Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND), Version 3.4. The results show that in the basic case (parameter levels based on intermediate estimates), the direct economic damage caused by tropical cyclones ascribed to the effect of climate change would amount to US$19 billion globally in the year 2100 (almost the same level as the baseline, i.e. current global damage of tropical cyclones), while the ratio to world gross domestic product (GDP) would be 0.006%. The USA and China account for much of the absolute damage, whereas Small Island States incur the largest damage if evaluated as the proportion of GDP. Model results were sensitive to the choice of baseline and of the wind-speed elasticity of storm damage.