Global Search for Autumn‐Lead Sea Surface Salinity Predictors of Winter Precipitation in Southwestern United States
Global Search for Autumn‐Lead Sea Surface Salinity Predictors of Winter Precipitation in Southwestern United States
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DOI：
10.1029/2018gl079293
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发表时间：
2018-08
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Tianjia Liu;Raymond W. Schmitt;Laifang Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Tianjia Liu;Raymond W. Schmitt;Laifang Li
海洋表面盐度（SSS）对海洋蒸发和降水的变化，即对海洋水循环的变化很敏感。通过海洋和陆地水循环之间的密切联系，SSS可以用作陆地降雨的指示。在这里，我们在全球范围内搜索美国西南部秋季-9月-10月-11月SSS信号和冬季12月-1月-2月降水之间的遥相关。基于SSS的模型（R2 = 0.61）优于基于海表温度的模型（R2 = 0.54）。此外，一个新鲜的热带太平洋在秋季，由低SSS表示，对应于潮湿的冬季。最近的研究表明，热带地区异常高的降雨量可能会激发Rossby波，从而将水输出到热带以外的地区。因此，将SSS作为区域海洋降雨的敏感指标，可以提高依赖于基于海洋表面温度的气候指数的现有降水预测框架的准确性，并通过扩展改善流域管理。
Sea surface salinity (SSS) is sensitive to changes in ocean evaporation and precipitation, that is, to changes in the oceanic water cycle. Through the close connection between the oceanic and terrestrial water cycle, SSS can be used as an indicator of rainfall on land. Here we search globally for teleconnections between autumn‐lead September‐October‐November SSS signals and winter December‐January‐February precipitation over southwestern United States. The SSS‐based model (R2 = 0.61) outperforms the sea surface temperature‐based model (R2 = 0.54). Further, a fresh tropical Pacific in autumn, indicated by low SSS, corresponds with wet winters. Recent studies suggest that anomalously high rainfall in the tropics may excite Rossby waves that can export water to the extratropics. Thus, incorporating SSS, a sensitive indicator of regional oceanic rainfall, can enhance the accuracy of existing precipitation prediction frameworks that rely on sea surface temperature‐based climate indices and, by extension, improve watershed management.