Early transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in a southern hemisphere setting: Lima-Peru: February 29th-March 30th, 2020
Early transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in a southern hemisphere setting: Lima-Peru: February 29th-March 30th, 2020
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DOI：
10.1016/j.idm.2020.05.001
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发表时间：
2020-01-01
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Chowell, Gerardo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Munayco, Cesar V.;Tariq, Amna;Chowell, Gerardo
在中国武汉出现的COVID-19大流行在过去四个月里在世界各地造成了巨大的发病率和死亡率影响。自2020年3月以来，拉丁美洲报告病例的每日趋势一直在迅速上升，截至2020年4月15日，报告的绝大多数病例发生在巴西，其次是秘鲁。尽管秘鲁在2020年3月6日确诊首例病例后不久就实施了一系列社会距离措施，但该国每天新增的COVID-19病例数仍在继续增加。我们评估了秘鲁利马的COVID-19早期传播动态和社会距离干预措施的效果。我们根据截至2020年3月30日症状出现之日的每日一系列输入性和本地病例，估计了利马早期传播阶段的复制数R。我们还评估了利马社会距离干预措施的效果，根据干预措施实施前的早期传播动态进行了短期预测。在利马实施社会距离措施之前，到症状出现之日，当地发病率曲线显示出接近指数增长的动态，其增长参数的平均缩放p估计为0.96 (95% CI: 0.87, 1.0)，再现数为2.3 （95% CI: 2.0, 2.5）。我们的分析表明，关闭学校和其他保持社会距离的干预措施有助于减缓新型冠状病毒的传播，在政府实施大规模的社会距离干预措施后不久，接近指数级的增长趋势就转变为近似线性的增长趋势。虽然这些干预措施似乎减缓了利马的传播速度，但新发COVID-19病例的数量继续增加，这突出表明需要加强社会距离和积极的病例发现工作，以减轻该地区的疾病传播。(c) 2020作者。由Elsevier B.V.代表KeAi Communications Co. Ltd制作和主持。这是一篇基于CC BY许可（http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/）的开放获取文章。
The COVID-19 pandemic that emerged in Wuhan China has generated substantial morbidity and mortality impact around the world during the last four months. The daily trend in reported cases has been rapidly rising in Latin America since March 2020 with the great majority of the cases reported in Brazil followed by Peru as of April 15th, 2020. Although Peru implemented a range of social distancing measures soon after the confirmation of its first case on March 6th, 2020, the daily number of new COVID-19 cases continues to accumulate in this country. We assessed the early COVID-19 transmission dynamics and the effect of social distancing interventions in Lima, Peru.We estimated the reproduction number, R, during the early transmission phase in Lima from the daily series of imported and autochthonous cases by the date of symptoms onset as of March 30th, 2020. We also assessed the effect of social distancing interventions in Lima by generating short-term forecasts grounded on the early transmission dynamics before interventions were put in place.Prior to the implementation of the social distancing measures in Lima, the local incidence curve by the date of symptoms onset displays near exponential growth dynamics with the mean scaling of growth parameter, p, estimated at 0.96 (95% CI: 0.87, 1.0) and the reproduction number at 2.3 (95% CI: 2.0, 2.5). Our analysis indicates that school closures and other social distancing interventions have helped slow down the spread of the novel coronavirus, with the nearly exponential growth trend shifting to an approximately linear growth trend soon after the broad scale social distancing interventions were put in place by the government.While the interventions appear to have slowed the transmission rate in Lima, the number of new COVID-19 cases continue to accumulate, highlighting the need to strengthen social distancing and active case finding efforts to mitigate disease transmission in the region. (c) 2020 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).