Potential impact of spatial patterns of future atmospheric warming on Asian dust emission
Potential impact of spatial patterns of future atmospheric warming on Asian dust emission
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DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.08.048
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发表时间：
2011-12
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
N. Tsunematsu;H. Kuze;Tomonori Sato;M. Hayasaki;Feifei Cui;A. Kondoh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Tsunematsu;H. Kuze;Tomonori Sato;M. Hayasaki;Feifei Cui;A. Kondoh
气候模式预测的未来大气变暖的空间格局表明，在北方半球的高纬度地区，对流层下部的温度将显著增加，在中低纬度地区，对流层上部的温度也将显著增加。在这项研究中，未来大气变暖的空间格局对亚洲沙尘排放的潜在影响进行了研究，通过使用动力降尺度方法进行数值试验。在三个重要的亚洲沙尘暴事件被复制为控制运行后，通过添加未来气候（2091-2100）和近期气候（1991-2000）之间的大气变量的差异来更新控制运行的初始和边界条件，以执行伪全球变暖运行。结果表明，亚洲主要沙尘源（MADS）的沙尘排放通量，塔克拉玛干沙漠和戈壁沙漠在未来的气候条件下将明显减少。未来沙尘排放通量的减少可能是由于MADS海平面气压（SLP）相对较大的增加和MADS北部的小SLP变化的组合，这降低了两个地区之间的纬向SLP梯度，从而减弱了冷空气爆发。MADS中SLP的大幅增加可能是由于风暴路径的北移和中低纬度对流层上层大幅变暖导致的大气稳定性增加。MADS北部的小SLP变化对应于地面气温的大幅上升，这将受到高纬度对流层下部大幅变暖的影响。
Spatial patterns of future atmospheric warming presented by climate model projections indicate that the temperatures of the lower troposphere will increase markedly at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere and also the upper troposphere at low-middle latitudes. In this study, potential impacts of the spatial patterns of future atmospheric warming on Asian dust emission were investigated by performing numerical experiments using a dynamical downscaling method. After three significant Asian dust outbreak events were reproduced as control runs, initial and boundary conditions of the control runs were updated by adding differences in atmospheric variables between the future climate (2091–2100) and the recent climate (1991–2000) to execute pseudo global warming runs. The results showed that the dust emission fluxes in the main Asian dust sources (MADSs), i.e., the Taklimakan and Gobi deserts, decrease markedly in the future climate condition. The future decreases in the dust emission fluxes are likely to be caused by a combination of the relatively large increases in sea level pressures (SLPs) in MADSs and the small SLP changes to the north of MADSs, which reduces the meridional SLP gradients between the two areas and consequently weakens cold air outbreaks. The large SLP increases in MADSs may be due to a northward shift of storm tracks and increased atmospheric stabilities caused by the large upper-tropospheric warming at low-middle latitudes. The small SLP changes to the north of MADSs corresponded to the large increases in surface air temperatures, which would be influenced by the large lower-tropospheric warming at high latitudes.