Increased temperature variation poses a greater risk to species than climate warming
Increased temperature variation poses a greater risk to species than climate warming
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2013.2612
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发表时间：
2014-03-22
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
O'Connor, Mary I.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Vasseur, David A.;DeLong, John P.;O'Connor, Mary I.
预计在不久的将来，极端气温的频率、严重程度和持续时间将增加。虽然最近的工作表明，温度变化的变化对物种的影响将不成比例地大于平均值的变化，但生态学中的大部分气候变化研究都集中在平均温度变化的影响上。在这里，我们耦合细粒度的气候预测（2050-2059年）的热性能数据从38个变温无脊椎动物物种和对比预测与一个简单的模型。我们表明，预测的基础上，平均温度变化的变化，并在演唱会的平均值和变化的变化有很大的不同。虽然大多数物种表现出更高的平均温度下的性能增加，平均值和方差变化的影响一起产生一系列的反应，温带物种的性能下降的风险最大。我们的工作强调了在评估和预测性能时使用细粒度时间数据来纳入温度变化的全部范围的重要性。
Increases in the frequency, severity and duration of temperature extremes are anticipated in the near future. Although recent work suggests that changes in temperature variation will have disproportionately greater effects on species than changes to the mean, much of climate change research in ecology has focused on the impacts of mean temperature change. Here, we couple fine-grained climate projections (2050-2059) to thermal performance data from 38 ectothermic invertebrate species and contrast projections with those of a simple model. We show that projections based on mean temperature change alone differ substantially from those incorporating changes to the variation, and to the mean and variation in concert. Although most species show increases in performance at greater mean temperatures, the effect of mean and variance change together yields a range of responses, with temperate species at greatest risk of performance declines. Our work highlights the importance of using fine-grained temporal data to incorporate the full extent of temperature variation when assessing and projecting performance.