Modelling the distribution in Hawaii of Angiostrongylus cantonensis (rat lungworm) in its gastropod hosts
Modelling the distribution in Hawaii of Angiostrongylus cantonensis (rat lungworm) in its gastropod hosts
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DOI：
10.1017/s0031182018001026
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发表时间：
2019-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Cowie, Robert H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kim, Jaynee R.;Wong, Tamara M.;Cowie, Robert H.
广州管圆线虫是一种寄生线虫，正在扩大其分布范围。人类感染，称为血管圆线虫病，可能表现为嗜酸性脑膜炎，一种新出现的传染病。这种疾病的范围和发病率正在整个热带和亚热带地区扩大。最近，夏威夷群岛报告的病例有所增加。这项研究探讨了影响寄生虫分布的因素，并使用夏威夷作为其全球扩张的模型，预测了其未来的潜在分布。用聚合酶链式反应对来自夏威夷群岛的37种钉螺标本进行了寄生虫筛查。它出现在六个最大的岛屿中的五个。这些数据被用来根据温度和降雨量生成广州管圆线虫的栖息地适宜性模型，以预测其在群岛内进一步传播的可能性。最好的当前气候模型预测了所有岛屿上的适宜栖息地，在降水量和温度较高的地区具有更大的适宜性。气候变化(到2100年)下的预测表明，在降雨量和气温估计增加的地区，适宜性增加，适宜的栖息地越来越多地出现在高海拔地区。类似地，气候变化可能会促进广州管圆线虫从目前的热带/亚热带范围传播到世界上更温和的地区，就像美国大陆开始看到的那样。
Angiostrongylus cantonensis (rat lungworm), a parasitic nematode, is expanding its distribution. Human infection, known as angiostrongyliasis, may manifest as eosinophilic meningitis, an emerging infectious disease. The range and incidence of this disease are expanding throughout the tropics and subtropics. Recently, the Hawaiian Islands have experienced an increase in reported cases. This study addresses factors affecting the parasite's distribution and projects its potential future distribution, using Hawaii as a model for its global expansion. Specimens of 37 snail species from the Hawaiian Islands were screened for the parasite using PCR. It was present on five of the six largest islands. The data were used to generate habitat suitability models for A. cantonensis, based on temperature and precipitation, to predict its potential further spread within the archipelago. The best current climate model predicted suitable habitat on all islands, with greater suitability in regions with higher precipitation and temperatures. Projections under climate change (to 2100) indicated increased suitability in regions with estimated increased precipitation and temperatures, suitable habitat occurring increasingly at higher elevations. Analogously, climate change could facilitate the spread of A. cantonensis from its current tropical/subtropical range into more temperate regions of the world, as is beginning to be seen in the continental USA.