Decision theory made relevant: Between the software and the shrink
Decision theory made relevant: Between the software and the shrink
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DOI：
10.1016/j.rie.2018.01.001
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发表时间：
2018-06-01
影响因子：
0.6
通讯作者：
Sibony, Olivier
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gilboa, Itzhak;Rouziou, Maria;Sibony, Olivier
决策理论提供了一个正式的方法来决策，这往往被视为和教导的理性方式来处理管理决策。半个世纪前，人们对它寄予厚望，希望它能捕捉甚至取代直觉，并在几乎所有的管理情境中提供“正确”的答案。今天，似乎可以公平地说，决策理论没有达到这些期望。行为科学提供了充足的证据，证明管理者未能遵循决策理论的格言，即使向他们解释这些格言。因此，高管们经常发现决策理论令人沮丧和无用，宁愿依靠自己的直觉。本文认为，这种极端的结论是没有根据的，并呼吁重新评估决策理论。我们建议，它不应该总是被视为一个数学工具，产生的答案，相反，它可以被视为一个框架之间的对话决策者和决策理论家。在一个极端中，决策理论家研究问题并提供“正确”答案。但在另一种情况下，决策理论家只是挑战决策者的直觉和逻辑。在这两者之间，存在着一系列可能的对话，在这些对话中，决策理论并没有取代直觉，而是支持和完善了直觉。（C）2018威尼斯大学。由爱思唯尔有限公司出版。保留所有权利。
Decision theory offers a formal approach to decision making, which is often viewed and taught as the rational way to approach managerial decisions. Half a century ago it generated high hopes of capturing and perhaps replacing intuition, and providing the "right" answer in practically all managerial situations. Today it seems fair to say that decision theory has not lived up to these expectations. Behavioral science provides ample evidence that managers fail to follow the dicta of decision theory, even when these are explained to them. As a result, executives often find decision theory frustrating and useless and prefer to rely on their intuition. This paper suggests that this extreme conclusion is unwarranted and calls for a re-appraisal of decision theory. We propose that it should not always be regarded as a mathematical tool that produces the answer; rather, it can be viewed as a framework for a dialog between the decision maker and the decision theorist. In one extreme, the decision theorist studies the problem and provides the "correct'' answer. But in another, the decision theorist only challenges the decision maker's intuition and logic. In between, a whole gamut of possible dialogs exists, in which decision theory doesn't replace intuition, but supports and refines it. (C) 2018 University of Venice. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.