Empirical Bayes and adjusted estimates approach to estimating the relation of mortality to exposure of PM10
Empirical Bayes and adjusted estimates approach to estimating the relation of mortality to exposure of PM10
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00606.x
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发表时间：
2005-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Touloumi, G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Le Tertre, A;Schwartz, J;Touloumi, G
在APHEIS方案(空气污染与健康：欧洲信息系统)的框架内，对空气动力学直径小于或等于10微米(PM10)的颗粒物，对26个欧洲城市的空气污染进行了健康影响评估。对于短期影响，它是基于APHEA-2项目(空气污染与健康：欧洲方法)的总体估计。这些特定城市的风险评估需要特定城市的集中反应功能，这就提出了哪种集中反应最合适的问题。特定城市模型的估计更具体，但比多城市分析提供的估计具有更大的不确定性。我们比较了在APHEA-2项目中的城市以及不包括在APHEA-2中但属于APHEIS项目的城市中的特定城市分析得出的几个估计值。这些估计是：来自当地回归模型的估计，基于通过元回归模型确定的两个显著影响修正因素的调整估计，以及特定城市的经验贝叶斯(缩小)估计及其基本分布。缩小和调整后的估计值被用来改进城市特定浓度-反应函数的估计。根据这些不同的估计，计算了每年的可归因性死亡人数。通过实际数据和模拟研究，讨论了不同方法的优点和局限性。
In the framework of the APHEIS program (Air Pollution and Health: A European Information System), a health impact assessment of air pollution in 26 European cities was performed for particles of an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 10 mu m (PM10). For short-term effects, it was based on overall estimates from the APHEA-2 project (Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach). These city-specific risk assessments require city-specific concentration-response functions, raising the question of which concentration-response is most appropriate. Estimates from city-specific models are more specific, but have greater uncertainty than those provided from multicity analyses. We compared several estimates derived from the city-specific analyses in cities that were part of the APHEA-2 project, as well as in a city that was not included in APHEA-2 but was part of the APHEIS project. These estimates were: the estimates from a local regression model, the adjusted estimates based on two significant effect modifiers identified through meta-regression models, and the city-specific empirical Bayes (shrunken) estimates and their underlying distribution. The shrunken and adjusted estimates were used to improve the estimation of city-specific concentration-response function. From these different estimates, attributable numbers of deaths per year were calculated. The advantages and limits of the different approaches are discussed through real data and in a simulation study.