Ensembles-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts
Ensembles-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts
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基于集合的气候变化及其影响预测
DOI：
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发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Hewitt
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Hewitt
对自然气候变异性和人类对气候的影响的预测本质上是概率的，这是由于预测的初始条件、模型中关键过程的表示以及气候强迫因素的不确定性。因此，对气候风险的可靠估计只能通过将这些不确定性明确纳入其中的地球系统模型的整体集成来进行。
该集合项目通过与欧盟委员会签订的一份为期5年的合同提供资金，旨在通过地球系统模型的集合集成提供气候风险的概率估计，其中明确纳入了本文所述的不确定性。
Predictions of natural climate variability and the human impact on climate are inherently probabilistic, due to uncertainties in the initial conditions of forecasts, the representation of key processes within models, and climatic forcing factors. Hence, reliable estimates of climatic risk can be made only through ensemble integrations of Earth system models in which these uncertainties are explicitly incorporated.
The ENSEMBLES project, funded through a 5-year contract with the European Commission, aims to provide probabilistic estimates of climatic risk through ensemble integrations of Earth system models in which the uncertainties noted here are explicitly incorporated.