Meta-modeling on detailed geography for accurate prediction of invasive alien species dispersal.
Meta-modeling on detailed geography for accurate prediction of invasive alien species dispersal.
复制标题
对详细地理进行元建模，以准确预测外来入侵物种的扩散。
DOI：
10.1038/s41598-019-52763-9
复制
发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Pepper N
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pepper N
入侵物种被认为是对生物多样性的重大威胁。其时空动态的数学模型可以提供显着的帮助环境管理人员在设计合适的控制策略。近几十年来，已经提出了几种数学方法来有效地模拟入侵物种的扩散。依赖于这样的假设，即个体的扩散是随机的，但在种群规模上的个体密度可以被认为是平滑的，反应扩散模型是模型复杂性和灵活性之间的一个很好的折衷，用于不同的情况。在本文中，我们提出了一个连续的反应扩散模型耦合任意多项式混沌（aPC），以评估模型参数的不确定性的影响。我们展示了如何有限元框架是非常适合处理重要的景观异质性海拔和复杂的几何形状与实际地理区域的边界。我们证明了拟议的耦合模型的主要能力，通过评估入侵的外来物种入侵的巴斯克地区在北方西班牙的不确定性。
Invasive species are recognized as a significant threat to biodiversity. The mathematical modeling of their spatio-temporal dynamics can provide significant help to environmental managers in devising suitable control strategies. Several mathematical approaches have been proposed in recent decades to efficiently model the dispersal of invasive species. Relying on the assumption that the dispersal of an individual is random, but the density of individuals at the scale of the population can be considered smooth, reaction-diffusion models are a good trade-off between model complexity and flexibility for use in different situations. In this paper we present a continuous reaction-diffusion model coupled with arbitrary Polynomial Chaos (aPC) to assess the impact of uncertainties in the model parameters. We show how the finite elements framework is well-suited to handle important landscape heterogeneities as elevation and the complex geometries associated with the boundaries of an actual geographical region. We demonstrate the main capabilities of the proposed coupled model by assessing the uncertainties in the invasion of an alien species invading the Basque Country region in Northern Spain.