Short-Term Wind Energy Forecasting
Short-Term Wind Energy Forecasting
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短期风能预测
DOI：
10.1109/epc.2007.4520354
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
P. Campbell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Campbell
在全世界努力确定和发展化石燃料的可持续替代品时，成功一体化的一个根本障碍是无法准确估计可持续能源的潜在产量。所有可持续资源中最困难的是风能，因为它的动态特性。有许多方法可以产生风态的预报。一般来说，这些模式可分为涉及数值天气预报模式或不涉及数值天气预报模式。过去15年是预测研究和发展的一个非常密集的时期。然而，它也清楚地表明，这项工作是从大型公用事业的角度进行的。虽然这在丹麦、瑞典和美国市场是可以接受的，因为大多数风电场都是由这些组织拥有和运营的，但对于发展中市场来说，这并不适用，因为大多数风电场都在较小的组织的运营控制下，这些组织没有足够的专业知识或预算能力来追求如此雄心勃勃的项目。本研究提出了许多预测生成的方法，并将各种预测范围内的方法与行业标准进行了比较。
As the world strives to identify and develop sustainable alternatives to fossil fuels a fundamental obstacle to successful integration has been the inability to accurately estimate the potential yield from sustainable energy sources. The most difficult of all sustainable resources is Wind, due to its dynamic nature. Many approaches exist to generate forecasts for wind regime. In general, these models can be classified as either involving a numerical weather prediction model (NWP) or not. The past fifteen years have been a very intensive period for forecasting research and development. However, it is also clearly demonstrated that this work is being carried out from the perspective of the large utility. Whilst this is acceptable in the Danish, Swedish and American markets, were the majority of wind parks are owned and operated by such organizations, it does not hold true for developing markets where the majority of wind parks are under the operational control of smaller organizations, which do not have sufficient expertise or budgetary ability to pursue such ambitious projects. This study presents a number of methodologies for forecast generation and compares the approaches to the industry standard across a variety of forecast horizons.