Survival in fluctuating bank vole populations:: seasonal and yearly variations
Survival in fluctuating bank vole populations:: seasonal and yearly variations
复制标题
DOI：
10.1034/j.1600-0706.2002.980311.x
复制
发表时间：
2002-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Lebreton, JD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Crespin, L;Verhagen, R;Lebreton, JD
对于大多数生物，无论是在一年内（即季节性）和一年之间的变化，在人口的重要组成部分，在塑造人口动态模式观察到的多年尺度。然而，这两种变异的来源很少被同时研究。例如，最近关于小型啮齿动物种群动态的大多数工作都集中在年间变化上。密度的种子和水果吃啮齿动物，如银行田鼠（Clethrionomys glareolus），特别是已知的有一年之间的变化与种子作物生产。在这里，我们报告的分析长期（1976-1982年）的捕获标记再捕获（CMR）研究的银行田鼠在比利时。该研究是在两个网格上进行的，一个是开放网格，一个是围栏网格。作为CMR统计分析的一部分，我们提出了一个通用的建模方法，可以详细了解生存的季节性和年间变化的相对重要性。我们证明，大部分的季节性变化对应于较低的明显生存在春季相比，其余的一年。在冬季，表观存活率是较低的开放网格比围栏网格。因此，扩散的结论是一个重要的决定因素的季节性模式。存活率的年间变化主要归因于种子作物的变化，其幅度与季节性变化相当。
For most organisms, both within-year (i.e. seasonal) and between-year variations in demography are important components in shaping the population dynamic patterns observed on a multiannual scale. These two sources of variation have, however, rarely been studied simultaneously. Most of the recent work on small rodent population dynamics, for example, has focused on between-year variation. Densities of seed- and fruit-eating rodents, such as the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus), are in particular known to have between-year variation related to seed crop production. Here we report on the analysis of a long-term (1976-1982) capture-mark-recapture (CMR) study of the bank vole in Belgium. The study was done on two grids, an open and a fenced grid. As part of the CMR statistical analysis, we propose a general modelling approach which allows for a detailed understanding of the relative importance of seasonal and between-year variation in survival. We demonstrate that most of the seasonal variation corresponds to a lower apparent survival in spring compared to the rest of the year. During winter, apparent survival was lower on the open grid than on the fenced grid. Dispersal is therefore concluded to be an important determinant of the seasonal pattern. The between-year variation in survival is largely attributable to variation in seed crops, and is comparable in magnitude to the seasonal variation.