Scenarios: tools for coping with complexity and future uncertainty?
Scenarios: tools for coping with complexity and future uncertainty?
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场景：应对复杂性和未来不确定性的工具？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. Maas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Pérez;R. Maas
我们不能肯定地预测未来，但我们知道未来受到我们当前行为的影响，而这些行为又受到我们预期的影响。这就是为什么从文明之初就存在未来情景，并被用于制定军事、政治和经济战略。情景的存在是否有助于实现预期的结果？公平地说，在大多数情况下，这个问题的答案是否定的，因为历史通常是一个开放的、不确定的过程，突然和意外的事件可以发挥决定性的、破坏性的作用。如果路易十六的顾问们有足够的想象力，能够预见到冰岛和日本火山爆发的影响，以及随之而来的1784年和1785年的作物歉收和法国的粮食短缺——通常被认为是1789年法国大革命的直接原因，那么法国大革命是否就可以避免呢？这至少可以说是有争议的。
We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic strategies. Does the existence of scenarios help to accomplish the desired outcomes? It is fair to say that in most cases the answer to this question is no, simply because history is normally an open, undetermined process, where sudden and unexpected events can play a decisive, disruptive role. Could the French Revolution have been prevented if Louis XVI’s counsellors had had the imagination to develop a shock-scenario, foreseeing the impact of the volcanic eruptions in Iceland and Japan, and the consequent crop failures in 1784 and 1785 and food scarcity in France – often cited as a proximate cause of the French Revolution in 1789? This is debatable to say the least.