How large are projected 21st century storm track changes?
How large are projected 21st century storm track changes?
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DOI：
10.1029/2012gl052873
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发表时间：
2012-09-25
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Hodges, K. I.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Harvey, B. J.;Shaffrey, L. C.;Hodges, K. I.
利用来自世界气候研究计划耦合模式比对项目（CMIP3和CMIP5）第三和第五阶段的多模式集合，对热带外冬季风暴路径的预估变化进行了研究。其目的是描述风暴路径响应的大小，相对于它们现在的年-年变化。对于所考虑的实验，即每个CMIP中的“中间路线”情景，北半球有多达40%模式的响应超过年际变率的一半，而南半球有多达60%模式响应超过年际变率一半的区域。引文：Harvey， b.j., l.c. Shaffrey, t.j. Woollings， G. Zappa和k.i. Hodges(2012)，预计21世纪风暴路径的变化有多大？“地球。卷。， 39, L18707, doi:10.1029/2012GL052873。
Projected changes in the extra-tropical wintertime storm tracks are investigated using the multi-model ensembles from both the third and fifth phases of the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). The aim is to characterize the magnitude of the storm track responses relative to their present-day year-to-year variability. For the experiments considered, the 'middle-of-the-road' scenarios in each CMIP, there are regions of the Northern Hemisphere where the responses of up to 40% of the models exceed half of the inter-annual variability, and for the Southern Hemisphere there are regions where up to 60% of the model responses exceed half of the inter-annual variability. Citation: Harvey, B. J., L. C. Shaffrey, T. J. Woollings, G. Zappa, and K. I. Hodges (2012), How large are projected 21st century storm track changes?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L18707, doi:10.1029/2012GL052873.