The Social Cost of Co2 from the Page09 Model
The Social Cost of Co2 from the Page09 Model
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Page09 模型中二氧化碳的社会成本
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Hope
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Hope
介绍了一个新版本的PAGE综合评价模型PAGE09。描述了该模型最新默认版本PAGE09 v1.7中最重要的科学、影响、排放和适应投入。给出了一切照旧(BAU)排放情景和低排放情景的科学和经济影响结果，低排放情景的目标是有50%的机会将全球平均气温上升控制在2摄氏度以下。如今二氧化碳的平均社会成本在BAU情景下约为每吨二氧化碳100美元，在低排放情景下约为每吨50美元。结果表明，气候瞬变响应、纯时间偏好率、消费边际效用弹性、地球反馈响应时间和非经济影响权重是影响SCCO2的主要因素。平均SCCO2不到10%来自附件1中附件1排放的影响，而超过45%来自世界其他地区(ROW)的影响来自ROW排放。平均SCCO2约有三分之一来自附件1所列排放造成的影响，而略高于10%来自附件1所列排放所造成的影响。
A new version of the PAGE integrated assessment model, PAGE09, is introduced. The most important scientific, impact, emission and adaptation inputs in the latest default version of the model, PAGE09 v1.7 are described. The scientific and economic impact results are presented for a business as usual (BAU) emissions scenario, and for a low emissions scenario which aims to have a 50% chance of keeping the rise in global mean temperatures below 2 degC. Today's mean social cost of CO2 is about $100 per tonne of CO2 in the BAU scenario, and about $50 per tonne in the low emissions scenario. The major influences on the SCCO2 are found to be the transient climate response, the pure time preference rate, the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption, the feedback response time of the earth and the weight on non-economic impacts. Less than 10% of the mean SCCO2 comes from impacts in annex 1 from annex 1 emissions, while over 45% comes from impacts in the rest of the world (RoW) from RoW emissions. About one third of the mean SCCO2 comes from impacts in the RoW caused by emissions in annex 1, while just over 10% comes from impacts in annex 1 caused by emissions in the RoW.