The past and future of food stocks
The past and future of food stocks
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035010
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发表时间：
2016-03-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
D'Odorico, Paolo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Laio, Francesco;Ridolfi, Luca;D'Odorico, Paolo
人类社会依靠粮食储备和进口农产品作为科普作物歉收和相关粮食短缺的手段。虽然近年来对粮食贸易进行了深入调查，但粮食储备的数量仍然很少。目前还不清楚粮食库存如何变化，以及是否正在下降。在这项研究中，我们使用92种产品的粮食库存记录，以重建50年的总粮食储备，以热量当量（千卡）表示，在区域和全球范围内。详细的统计分析表明，整个地区和全球人均粮食库存处于稳定状态，挑战了粮食储备正在萎缩的普遍印象。我们开发了一个合理的股票动态随机表示，并采取股票减半的概率作为衡量的自然变异的过程。我们发现，到2050年，全球人均储量将减半的可能性为20%。然而，存在着一些明显的区域差异：西欧和包括北非和中东的区域减半的概率较小，人均存量较小，而北美和大洋洲减半的概率较大，人均存量高于全球平均水平。非洲的人均粮食储量较低，到2050年粮食储量减半的可能性相对较高，这反映出非洲大陆的粮食不安全程度较高。
Human societies rely on food reserves and the importation of agricultural goods as means to cope with crop failures and associated food shortage. While food trade has been the subject of intensive investigations in recent years, food reserves remain poorly quantified. It is unclear how food stocks are changing and whether they are declining. In this study we use food stock records for 92 products to reconstruct 50 years of aggregated food reserves, expressed in caloric equivalent (kcal), at the regional and global scales. A detailed statistical analysis demonstrates that the overall regional and global percapita food stocks are stationary, challenging a widespread impression that food reserves are shrinking. We develop a statistically-sound stochastic representation of stock dynamics and take the stock-halving probability as a measure of the natural variability of the process. We find that there is a 20% probability that the global per-capita stocks will be halved by 2050. There are, however, some strong regional differences: Western Europe and the region encompassing North Africa and the Middle East have smaller halving probabilities and smaller per-capita stocks, while North America and Oceania have greater halving probabilities and greater per-capita stocks than the global average. Africa exhibits low per-capita stocks and relatively high probability of stock halving by 2050, which reflects a state of higher food insecurity in this continent.