The response of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) to future climate change
The response of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) to future climate change
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DOI：
10.1016/j.icesjms.2005.05.015
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发表时间：
2005-10-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Drinkwater, KF
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Drinkwater, KF
全球环流模式（GCMs）预测的未来CO2引起的气候变化情景表明，气温将升高，其中北极和亚北极地区的变暖幅度最大，风场和降水格局也将发生变化。这将导致海洋水文特性以及垂直分层和环流模式的变化。特别值得注意的是海洋温度的预期上升。根据观测到的鳕鱼对温度变率的响应，在这里回顾和讨论了整个北大西洋鳕鱼种群对未来温度情景的预期响应。预计到2100年，凯尔特海和爱尔兰海的种群将在预测的温度变化下消失，而北海南部和乔治海岸的种群将减少。鳕鱼可能会沿着格陵兰岛和拉布拉多海岸向北扩散，占据巴伦支海更大的区域，甚至可能延伸到北冰洋的一些大陆架。此外，产卵地点将比目前更靠北。春天的迁徙可能会提前，秋天的回归可能会晚一些。有一种明显的可能性是，在季节性海冰完全消失的地方，鳕鱼将停止迁徙。许多鳕鱼种群的个体增长率将增加，导致北大西洋大西洋鳕鱼总产量的总体增加。然而，鳕鱼对未来气候变化的这些反应具有高度不确定性，因为除了温度之外，它们还取决于气候和海洋变量的变化，例如浮游生物产量、猎物和捕食者领域以及工业化捕捞。(c)2005年国际海洋考察理事会。由爱思唯尔有限公司出版。保留所有权利。
Future CO2-induced climate change scenarios from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) indicate increasing air temperatures, with the greatest warming in the Arctic and Subarctic, Changes to the wind fields and precipitation patterns are also suggested. These will lead to changes in the hydrographic properties of the ocean, as well as the vertical stratification and circulation patterns. Of particular note is the expected increase in ocean temperature. Based upon the observed responses of cod to temperature variability, the expected responses of cod stocks throughout the North Atlantic to the future temperature scenarios are reviewed and discussed here. Stocks in the Celtic and Irish Seas are expected to disappear under predicted temperature changes by the year 2100, while those in the southern North Sea and Georges Bank will decline. Cod will likely spread northwards along the coasts of Greenland and Labrador, occupy larger areas of the Barents Sea, and may even extend onto some of the continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean. In addition, spawning sites will be established further north than currently. It is likely that spring migrations will occur earlier, and fall returns will be later. There is the distinct possibility that, where seasonal sea ice disappears altogether, cod will cease their migration. Individual growth rates for many of the cod stocks will increase, leading to in overall increase in the total production of Atlantic cod in the North Atlantic. These responses of cod to future climate changes are highly uncertain, however, as they will also depend on the changes to climate and oceanographic variables besides temperature, such as plankton production, the prey and predator fields, and industrial fishing. (c) 2005 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.