Gridded uncertainty in fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission maps, a CDIAC example
Gridded uncertainty in fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission maps, a CDIAC example
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DOI：
10.5194/acp-16-14979-2016
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发表时间：
2016-12-05
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Higdon, David M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Andres, Robert J.;Boden, Thomas A.;Higdon, David M.
由于目前缺乏适当的空间和时间尺度的物理测量，所有目前的全球化石燃料二氧化碳（FFCO 2）排放量地图和分布使用一个或多个代理来分配这些排放量。这些代理和分配方案给这些地图带来了额外的不确定性。本文探讨了与网格FFCO 2排放量的大小相关的不确定性。这种不确定性在与质量星等图相同的空间和时间尺度上被网格化。这种网格化的不确定性包括用于创建FFCO 2排放量图的空间、时间、代理和量值分量的不确定性贡献。在整个过程中，当必须做出假设或采用专家判断时，大多数情况下的一般趋势是高估或增加不确定性的大小。不确定性分析的结果显示，在4- 190%的范围内，在每年的时间尺度上，人口和FFCO 2排放网格空间的平均值为120%（2西格玛）。本文还介绍了一种方法的变化，具体到二氧化碳信息分析中心（CDIAC）FFCO 2排放地图的创建：从一个时间上固定的人口代理的变化，随时间变化的人口代理。
Due to a current lack of physical measurements at appropriate spatial and temporal scales, all current global maps and distributions of fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions use one or more proxies to distribute those emissions. These proxies and distribution schemes introduce additional uncertainty into these maps. This paper examines the uncertainty associated with the magnitude of gridded FFCO2 emissions. This uncertainty is gridded at the same spatial and temporal scales as the mass magnitude maps. This gridded uncertainty includes uncertainty contributions from the spatial, temporal, proxy, and magnitude components used to create the magnitude map of FFCO2 emissions. Throughout this process, when assumptions had to be made or expert judgment employed, the general tendency in most cases was toward overestimating or increasing the magnitude of uncertainty. The results of the uncertainty analysis reveal a range of 4-190 %, with an average of 120% (2 sigma) for populated and FFCO2-emitting grid spaces over annual timescales. This paper also describes a methodological change specific to the creation of the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) FFCO2 emission maps: the change from a temporally fixed population proxy to a temporally varying population proxy.