Just-In-Time Modelingに基づく日射量予測手法の開発
Just-In-Time Modelingに基づく日射量予測手法の開発
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基于即时建模的太阳辐射预测方法的开发
DOI：
10.1541/ieejpes.131.912
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发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
崇 大関
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
孝 鈴木;悠主 後藤;隆宏 寺園;真治 若尾;崇 大関
光伏发电输出功率主要取决于太阳辐照度，而太阳辐照度受各种气象因素的影响。因此，预测未来太阳辐照度对于光伏系统的高效运行是非常必要的。本文提出了一种新的太阳辐照度预测方法，将黑箱模型（JIT模型）和物理模型（GPV数据）结合起来进行联合收割机预测。利用日本气象厅提供的日本全国44个观测点和NEDO提供的关东周边64个观测点的实测数据，研究了各电力公司控制范围内太阳辐照度的预测精度。最后，针对数据库编制的难点，提出了太阳辐照度的应用预报方法。并考虑了不同GPV缺省时间对太阳辐照度预测的影响。
PV power output mainly depends on the solar irradiance which is affected by various meteorological factors. So, it is required to predict solar irradiance in the future for the efficient operation of PV systems. In this paper, we develop a novel approach for solar irradiance forecast, in which we introduce to combine the black-box model (JIT Modeling) with the physical model (GPV data). We investigate the predictive accuracy of solar irradiance over wide controlled-area of each electric power company by utilizing the measured data on the 44 observation points throughout Japan offered by JMA and the 64 points around Kanto by NEDO. Finally, we propose the application forecast method of solar irradiance to the point which is difficulty in compiling the database. And we consider the influence of different GPV default time on solar irradiance prediction.