Timely detection of anthropogenic change in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
Timely detection of anthropogenic change in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
复制标题
及时检测大西洋经向翻转环流的人为变化
DOI：
10.1029/2004gl020306
复制
发表时间：
2004
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
R. Wood
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Vellinga;R. Wood
通过监测有限数量的关键海洋变量，可以改善对大西洋经向翻转环流（“MOC”）人为减弱的检测。我们在气候大气环流模型 HadCM3 中确定了一组可能有用的海洋水文观测。当该模型受到 21 世纪人为气候强迫情景的影响时，会发现一种模式，可以捕获这些变量的协变性和 MOC 的强度。这种模式的指纹在 10 年的时间尺度上从内部变化引起的背景噪声中清晰地显现出来。如果在其他气候模型中发现类似的结果，这将为 MOC 观测系统的设计提供有用的信息。
Detection of anthropogenic weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (‘MOC’) may be improved by monitoring a limited number of key oceanic variables. We have identified a set of potentially useful ocean hydrographic observations in the climate general circulation model HadCM3. When the model is forced by an anthropogenic climate forcing scenario for the 21st century, a pattern is found that captures co‐variability of these variables and strength of the MOC. Fingerprints of this pattern emerge clearly on time scales of 10 years from background noise caused by internal variability. If similar results are found in other climate models this will provide useful information for the design of an MOC observing system.