Cognitive and motivational factors influencing time prediction
Cognitive and motivational factors influencing time prediction
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DOI：
10.1037/1076-898x.3.3.216
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发表时间：
1997-09-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Byram, SJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Byram, SJ
实验1-4测试了分解、意外、多情景（乐观、最佳猜测、悲观）、锚定和调整、社会预测、编码（熟悉度）和任务绩效延迟等多种去偏技术。这些操作都没有导致显著不同的预测。实验5测试了财政激励的效果。与预期相反，给予金钱奖励以提高速度的参与者给出的预测时间较短，但完成任务的速度并不比没有奖励的参与者快。参与者被激励成为一厢情愿的思考者，而不是更有能力的实干家。三个实际影响结果：(a)正式预测方法可能不像假设的那样准确，(b)社会预测不一定是预测的灵丹妙药，(c)那些安排任务的人应该特别注意行为者的动机。
Cognitive and motivational processes underlying time prediction were studied in 5 experiments, Experiments 1-4 tested several debiasing techniques including decomposition, surprises, multiple scenarios (optimistic, best guess, pessimistic), anchoring and adjustment, social prediction, encoding (familiarity), and task performance delay. None of the manipulations resulted in significantly different predictions. Experiment 5 tested the effect of financial incentives. Contrary to expectations, participants given financial incentives for speed gave shorter predictions but performed the task no more quickly than those without Incentives. Participants were motivated to be wishful thinkers brit not more capable doers. Three practical implications result: (a) Formal prediction methods may not be as accurate as assumed, (b) social forecasting is not necessarily a prediction panacea, and (c) those who schedule tasks should pay particular attention to actors' motivations.