Assessing seasonal demographic covariation to understand environmental‐change impacts on a hibernating mammal
Assessing seasonal demographic covariation to understand environmental‐change impacts on a hibernating mammal
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评估季节性人口统计协变以了解环境变化对冬眠哺乳动物的影响
DOI：
10.1111/ele.13459
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Munch, ed., Stephan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Paniw, Maria;Childs, Dylan Z.;Armitage, Kenneth B.;Blumstein, Daniel T.;Martin, Julien G. A.;Oli, Madan K.;Ozgul, Arpat;Munch, ed., Stephan
自然种群暴露于环境因素的季节性变化，同时影响几个人口统计率（生存，发展和繁殖）。由此产生的协变，这些利率决定人口动态，但占其众多的生物和非生物驱动程序是一个重大的挑战。在这里，我们使用因子分析方法来捕捉季节性种群动态的部分未观察到的驱动因素。我们使用了40年的基于个体的黄腹土拨鼠（旱獭flaviventer）的人口统计数据来拟合和预测人口模型，这些模型使用潜在变量来解释季节性人口统计协变。我们发现，这个潜在的变量，冬季人口率之间产生积极的协变，描绘了环境质量的措施。与此同时，冬季生存和生殖状态变化对环境质量下降的负面反应导致种群准灭绝的风险更高，无论夏季人口统计学如何进行招募。我们演示了如何复杂的环境过程可以总结，以了解人口在季节性环境中的持久性。
Natural populations are exposed to seasonal variation in environmental factors that simultaneously affect several demographic rates (survival, development and reproduction). The resulting covariation in these rates determines population dynamics, but accounting for its numerous biotic and abiotic drivers is a significant challenge. Here, we use a factor‐analytic approach to capture partially unobserved drivers of seasonal population dynamics. We use 40 years of individual‐based demography from yellow‐bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) to fit and project population models that account for seasonal demographic covariation using a latent variable. We show that this latent variable, by producing positive covariation among winter demographic rates, depicts a measure of environmental quality. Simultaneously, negative responses of winter survival and reproductive‐status change to declining environmental quality result in a higher risk of population quasi‐extinction, regardless of summer demography where recruitment takes place. We demonstrate how complex environmental processes can be summarized to understand population persistence in seasonal environments.