Resilience modeling and quantification for engineered systems using Bayesian networks
Resilience modeling and quantification for engineered systems using Bayesian networks
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DOI：
10.1115/1.4032399
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发表时间：
2016-03
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Nita Yodo;Pingfeng Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Nita Yodo;Pingfeng Wang
工程弹性的概念受到了学术界和工业界的普遍关注，因为它提供了一种思考如何抵御破坏并正确恢复的新方法。尽管弹性的概念在不同学科中得到了学术探讨，但很少有关注如何定量测量工程弹性的问题。本文致力于探讨工业应用中工程系统设计领域中工程弹性的定量和定性评估之间的差距。首先提出了一个用于建模工程弹性的概念框架，然后采用贝叶斯网络（BN）作为评估和分析工程系统弹性的定量工具。采用两个基于工业的案例研究（供应链和生产过程）来演示所提出的方法。所提出的使用 BN 的弹性量化和分析方法将使系统设计者能够更好地掌握自己系统的弱点和优势，以应对不利故障事件引起的系统中断。
The concept of engineering resilience has received a prevalent attention from academia as well as industry because it contributes a new means of thinking about how to withstand against disruptions and recover properly. Although the concept of resilience was scholarly explored in diverse disciplines, there are only few which focus on how to quantitatively measure the engineering resilience. This paper is dedicated to explore the gap between quantitative and qualitative assessment of engineering resilience in the domain of designing engineered systems in industrial applications. A conceptual framework is first proposed for modeling engineering resilience, and then Bayesian network (BN) is employed as a quantitative tool for the assessment and analysis of the resilience for engineered systems. Two industrial-based case studies, supply chain and production process, are employed to demonstrate the proposed approach. The proposed resilience quantification and analysis approach using BNs would empower system designers to have a better grasp of the weakness and strength of their own systems against system disruptions induced by adverse failure events.