Projecting species' range expansion dynamics: sources of systematic biases when scaling up patterns and processes
Projecting species' range expansion dynamics: sources of systematic biases when scaling up patterns and processes
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DOI：
10.1111/j.2041-210x.2012.00235.x
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发表时间：
2012-12-01
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Travis, Justin M. J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bocedi, Greta;Pe'er, Guy;Travis, Justin M. J.
1. 动态模拟模型是评估物种如何应对栖息地破碎化和气候变化的有前途的工具。然而，其输出对空间分辨率影响的敏感性尚不清楚。 2. 使用基于个体的动态模型来扩展物种范围，我们证明了与关键模式和过程建模的分辨率相关的选择所导致的重大偏差的固有风险。 3. 增加像元大小会导致高估扩散距离、范围变化的程度和种群大小。对于扩散能力较短的物种，高估会随着细胞大小的增加而加速，并且在高度分散的景观中尤其严重。 4. 高估源于三个主要相互作用的来源：空间信息的同质化、分散核的改变以及种群动态的稳定/聚集。 5. 我们敦促谨慎选择动态模拟和其他预测模型中使用的空间分辨率，并强调迫切需要开发在精细尺度上维持重要模式和过程的升级方法。
1. Dynamic simulation models are a promising tool for assessing how species respond to habitat fragmentation and climate change. However, sensitivity of their outputs to impacts of spatial resolution is insufficiently known. 2. Using an individual-based dynamic model for species range expansion, we demonstrate an inherent risk of substantial biases resulting from choices relating to the resolution at which key patterns and processes are modelled. 3. Increasing cell size leads to overestimating dispersal distances, the extent of the range shift and population size. Overestimation accelerates with cell size for species with short dispersal capacity and is particularly severe in highly fragmented landscapes. 4. The overestimation results from three main interacting sources: homogenisation of spatial information, alteration of dispersal kernels and stabilisation/aggregation of population dynamics. 5. We urge for caution in selecting the spatial resolution used in dynamic simulations and other predictive models and highlight the urgent need to develop upscaling methods that maintain important patterns and processes at fine scales.