Capital and Opposition in Africa: Coalition Building in Multiethnic Societies
Capital and Opposition in Africa: Coalition Building in Multiethnic Societies
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非洲的资本与反对派：多民族社会的联盟建设
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
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通讯作者：
Leonardo R. Arriola
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文献类型：
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作者：
Leonardo R. Arriola
在什么条件下，拥有少数民族选区的反对派政治家可以组成选举联盟？在非洲以庇护为基础的政治体系中，现任者通过利用国家资源来确保其他族裔政治家的支持而形成联盟。然而，反对派政治家必须依靠私人资源来做同样的事情。本文提出了一种政治经济学理论来解释企业相对于国家控制资本的相对自主权如何影响多民族反对派联盟的形成。这表明反对派不太可能跨越种族分歧联合起来，现任者利用他们对银行业和信贷业的影响力来控制企业的政治忠诚，而企业是贫穷国家反对派最大的潜在资助者。金融改革的自由化，使企业能够在不必担心报复的情况下实现政治捐款的多样化，使反对派政治家能够获得模仿现任者建立金钱联盟战略所需的资源。对1990年至2005年非洲各地行政选举的二项逻辑回归分析证实了这一理论主张：商业银行的数量和向私营部门提供的信贷所代表的企业更大的金融自主权显着增加了多民族反对派联盟形成的可能性。
Under what conditions can opposition politicians with ethnic constituencies form electoral coalitions? In Africa’s patronage-based political systems, incumbents form coalitions by using state resources to secure the endorsement of politicians from other ethnic groups. Opposition politicians, however, must rely on private resources to do the same. This article presents a political economy theory to explain how the relative autonomy of business from state-controlled capital influences the formation of multiethnic opposition coalitions. It shows that the opposition is unlikely to coalesce across ethnic cleavages where incumbents use their influence over banking and credit to command the political allegiance of business—the largest potential funder of opposition in poor countries. Liberalizing financial reforms, in freeing business to diversify political contributions without fear of reprisal, enable opposition politicians to access the resources needed to mimic the incumbent’s pecuniary coalition-building strategy. A binomial logistic regression analysis of executive elections held across Africa between 1990 and 2005 corroborates the theoretical claim: greater financial autonomy for business—as proxied by the number of commercial banks and the provision of credit to the private sector—significantly increases the likelihood of multiethnic opposition coalitions being formed.